1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:09,240 [Music] 2 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:11,320 [Applause] 3 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:14,400 [Music] 4 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:15,759 ladies and gentlemen 5 00:00:15,759 --> 00:00:17,359 welcome the moderator of the next 6 00:00:17,359 --> 00:00:20,070 session vasil hudak 7 00:00:20,070 --> 00:00:23,179 [Music] 8 00:00:25,279 --> 00:00:27,599 good afternoon everybody good afternoon 9 00:00:27,599 --> 00:00:29,679 from bratislava from this 10 00:00:29,679 --> 00:00:32,880 wonderful event that globsec is hosting 11 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:34,640 here already since yesterday 12 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:37,200 i think it's a unique event because we 13 00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:38,000 are not only 14 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:40,399 virtually connected but we have over 200 15 00:00:40,399 --> 00:00:41,360 participants 16 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:44,000 who are here who are in british lava in 17 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:45,280 different parts of 18 00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:48,239 of globsec event website forum and i 19 00:00:48,239 --> 00:00:49,520 think it's uh it shows that 20 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:52,079 uh hopefully the pandemic is finishing 21 00:00:52,079 --> 00:00:54,399 and we are beginning to meet in person 22 00:00:54,399 --> 00:00:56,320 and uh to be together and be able to 23 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:58,640 discuss different issues 24 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:02,079 directly in person so wonderful to 25 00:01:02,079 --> 00:01:04,479 be in charge and to introduce and share 26 00:01:04,479 --> 00:01:06,640 this session on winners and losers of 27 00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:07,280 the 28 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:10,400 pandemic we'll have about 45 minutes to 29 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:12,799 discuss this important topic i think 30 00:01:12,799 --> 00:01:14,720 there are many discussions already about 31 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:16,640 who are the winners who are the losers 32 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:19,520 and what to do about both of them we 33 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:20,320 have 34 00:01:20,320 --> 00:01:22,080 three panelists who are with us 35 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:23,759 virtually from different 36 00:01:23,759 --> 00:01:27,439 parts of the world i will introduce them 37 00:01:27,439 --> 00:01:31,040 now uh uncle korea former secretary 38 00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:32,720 general of oecd 39 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:37,360 angel welcome thank you for joining us 40 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:40,640 arim still in paris 41 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:43,360 i know i'm in mexico now mexico okay 42 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:45,520 back home 43 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:48,880 pretty early great thank you 44 00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:52,000 angel he has been coming to different 45 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:54,159 globe seg events including tatra summit 46 00:01:54,159 --> 00:01:55,840 for several years and 47 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:58,799 is a great friend of slovakia of europe 48 00:01:58,799 --> 00:02:00,240 and thank you so much for 49 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:02,719 for all that you have done at the oecd 50 00:02:02,719 --> 00:02:05,920 uh really major work thank you 51 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:08,639 the second panelist is harry brodman a 52 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:09,679 partner and chair 53 00:02:09,679 --> 00:02:12,080 emerging markets practice berkeley 54 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:13,120 research group 55 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:14,879 and faculty member of john hopkins 56 00:02:14,879 --> 00:02:16,959 university uh harry 57 00:02:16,959 --> 00:02:22,080 welcome greetings to washington dc thank 58 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:24,239 you very much russell great to see you 59 00:02:24,239 --> 00:02:26,160 i think we know each other since uh you 60 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:27,840 worked at the world bank and 61 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:30,879 uh many other institutions so great to 62 00:02:30,879 --> 00:02:32,239 have you at least virtually 63 00:02:32,239 --> 00:02:35,440 in bratislava and the third one uh i 64 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:36,000 don't think we 65 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:38,959 need to really introduce too much i call 66 00:02:38,959 --> 00:02:40,319 him mr europe 67 00:02:40,319 --> 00:02:42,080 uh because he does represent europe from 68 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:43,519 different sides but 69 00:02:43,519 --> 00:02:47,440 i mean good part of europe alex stoop 70 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:49,040 director school of transatlantic 71 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:51,519 governance european university institute 72 00:02:51,519 --> 00:02:54,720 joining us from florence alex good 73 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:56,160 afternoon 74 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:58,560 thanks sir thanks vasil good afternoon 75 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:00,080 actually joining you from finland just 76 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:01,760 got back from florence a couple nights 77 00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:02,959 ago and 78 00:03:02,959 --> 00:03:05,040 if i sort of stop and shout at some 79 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:06,800 stage it's because finland will have 80 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:09,120 just scored a goal against russia 81 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:11,360 uh we're 20 minutes into the match and 82 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:13,200 we started by scoring in the third 83 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:15,599 minutes but this stupid var 84 00:03:15,599 --> 00:03:18,319 system claimed that it was a offside it 85 00:03:18,319 --> 00:03:20,159 wasn't but in any case congratulations 86 00:03:20,159 --> 00:03:21,840 to slovakia for winning their first 87 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:22,720 match 88 00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:24,560 wonderful thank you so much yes 89 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:26,480 unfortunately digitalization including 90 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:27,680 in soccer has some 91 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:31,360 negative consequences but 92 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:33,840 alex uh having been prime minister 93 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:35,680 foreign minister finance minister 94 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:37,120 vice president of the european western 95 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:39,280 bank where we used to sit together at 96 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:40,080 this uh 97 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:42,959 never-ending meetings uh uh he obviously 98 00:03:42,959 --> 00:03:44,640 he's the person who has a lot to say 99 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:45,200 about 100 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:48,319 both winners and and losers of pandemic 101 00:03:48,319 --> 00:03:50,480 so thank you of course all those who are 102 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:51,920 here in the audience 103 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:54,319 in person in bratislava thank you for 104 00:03:54,319 --> 00:03:56,480 joining this session and 105 00:03:56,480 --> 00:03:59,439 we have many others who are joining us 106 00:03:59,439 --> 00:04:00,640 virtually 107 00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:02,640 globally from different parts of the 108 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:04,080 world 109 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:07,040 i would just like to remind all of us 110 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:08,080 all of you that 111 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:10,640 it is possible to ask questions during 112 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:11,840 the session 113 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:14,640 there are three ways how to do it those 114 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:16,000 who are in the room 115 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:18,880 just please raise your hand and and when 116 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:20,079 i give you the floor please 117 00:04:20,079 --> 00:04:21,680 come to the microphone which is right 118 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:24,479 here there is also a possibility to 119 00:04:24,479 --> 00:04:27,680 ask questions online via globsec 120 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:30,560 application called and through slido 121 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:31,440 system 122 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:34,160 and the third one is connecting via zoom 123 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:35,759 uh to the virtual studio 124 00:04:35,759 --> 00:04:38,320 actually we already have a question from 125 00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:39,440 argentina 126 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:42,720 so close to close to mexico or where 127 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:46,240 where angel is now um 128 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:48,240 i would like to actually test this 129 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:49,600 system of questions 130 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:53,680 only about 10 000 kilometers away 131 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:55,759 for us from europe it seems like it's 132 00:04:55,759 --> 00:04:57,680 all one big 133 00:04:57,680 --> 00:04:59,600 big continent very close to each other 134 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:01,520 but yes thank you for reminding 135 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:04,479 of the distances 136 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:06,560 so before i ask the each of the 137 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:08,240 panelists to uh 138 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:10,560 to give the introductory remarks i would 139 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:11,520 like to test 140 00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:14,560 the system itself and there is uh 141 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:18,479 one question which would be posed 142 00:05:18,479 --> 00:05:22,400 by slido and we can test the the answers 143 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:25,120 i think the question could be on the 144 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:25,600 screen 145 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:27,919 soon 146 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:32,639 yes so the question is will our lives 147 00:05:32,639 --> 00:05:36,000 after the pandemic be a better or 148 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:39,680 worse so those uh who are 149 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:44,560 on slido please uh check either a or b 150 00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:46,639 it'll be interesting to see what the 151 00:05:46,639 --> 00:05:48,960 feeling of the audience 152 00:05:48,960 --> 00:05:51,360 both here but also internationally what 153 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:52,320 what it is 154 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:54,240 whether our lives will be influenced in 155 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:55,759 a better way 156 00:05:55,759 --> 00:05:58,960 better good 88 better 157 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:01,600 that's great very optimistic audience we 158 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:03,039 have we have today which is 159 00:06:03,039 --> 00:06:04,319 which is wonderful i think it's also 160 00:06:04,319 --> 00:06:07,680 because finland is going to win so 161 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:11,120 everybody is in an optimistic mood uh 162 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:14,400 but uh let let's go now to the panelists 163 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:15,520 themselves and to the 164 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:17,919 introductory remarks um there are 165 00:06:17,919 --> 00:06:18,800 basically 166 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:22,160 uh two two things which were put 167 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:24,319 in front of the panelists and the 168 00:06:24,319 --> 00:06:25,840 session itself 169 00:06:25,840 --> 00:06:27,759 two issues you would like to discuss in 170 00:06:27,759 --> 00:06:29,520 particular but of course 171 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:32,720 we can go much broader one 172 00:06:32,720 --> 00:06:34,880 question is who are those winners and 173 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:36,000 losers 174 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:39,280 of pandemic winners and losers both in 175 00:06:39,280 --> 00:06:40,400 the context of 176 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:42,639 international environment global 177 00:06:42,639 --> 00:06:43,440 community 178 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:45,919 but also in terms of countries 179 00:06:45,919 --> 00:06:47,280 themselves and within the country 180 00:06:47,280 --> 00:06:48,560 countries themselves 181 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:52,319 as well as economic sectors so 182 00:06:52,319 --> 00:06:53,759 kind of defining who are those winners 183 00:06:53,759 --> 00:06:55,599 and losers and the second one 184 00:06:55,599 --> 00:06:58,720 is how can we help the winners and 185 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:00,479 or rather support the winners and how 186 00:07:00,479 --> 00:07:02,560 can we help losers 187 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:04,560 so maybe those will be the types of 188 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:06,400 questions in general but uh 189 00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:09,199 of course up to you uh our friends on 190 00:07:09,199 --> 00:07:10,319 the panel to 191 00:07:10,319 --> 00:07:13,199 to to uh describe as you as you want so 192 00:07:13,199 --> 00:07:14,880 i would like to start with um 193 00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:18,560 hell mr guria if you could maybe 194 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:20,800 start with your perspective and if we 195 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:22,240 could keep the remarks to 196 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:23,919 five seven minutes uh that would be 197 00:07:23,919 --> 00:07:26,560 appreciated 198 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:30,479 well i was quite intrigued by 199 00:07:30,479 --> 00:07:33,840 the title because um winners and losers 200 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:35,039 um 201 00:07:35,039 --> 00:07:38,880 looks like it's a zero-sum game 202 00:07:38,880 --> 00:07:42,319 and um there are uh opportunities or 203 00:07:42,319 --> 00:07:44,240 there are occasions 204 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:47,280 in the world in history 205 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:50,479 where you have net losses and i think 206 00:07:50,479 --> 00:07:52,080 this is one of them 207 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:55,919 this is a truly uh 208 00:07:55,919 --> 00:07:59,759 global problem uh it's much more global 209 00:07:59,759 --> 00:08:02,000 than the global financial crisis 210 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:06,720 of the 2008-2009 211 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:11,120 even the most remote island in the world 212 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:15,039 has not been spared um and um 213 00:08:15,039 --> 00:08:17,280 that also creates a lot of challenges 214 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:18,560 for the future 215 00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:21,680 uh when you have four million 216 00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:24,000 deaths uh or close to four million 217 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:24,800 deaths 218 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:27,520 uh you had a large contraction the world 219 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:29,599 economy three and a half percent 220 00:08:29,599 --> 00:08:32,799 last year we are uh 221 00:08:32,799 --> 00:08:35,519 looking at a six percent growth for the 222 00:08:35,519 --> 00:08:37,679 world economy in 2021 223 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:41,360 and perhaps four to five percent in 224 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:45,680 2022 so we're looking at a recovery 225 00:08:45,680 --> 00:08:50,080 but uh basically the scars 226 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:53,519 of the pandemic will 227 00:08:53,519 --> 00:08:57,040 be with us uh for much longer uh 228 00:08:57,040 --> 00:09:00,720 even after we bit we beat the pandemic 229 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:04,560 if that is at all possible 230 00:09:04,560 --> 00:09:08,000 in the next few years the scars of this 231 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:11,519 impact in terms of 232 00:09:11,519 --> 00:09:14,880 trade in terms of investment in terms of 233 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:19,200 jobs in terms of poverty 234 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:22,480 and also in terms of uh 235 00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:25,920 the future of work there are some things 236 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:28,640 which we are still processing and we're 237 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:30,160 still working on 238 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:33,360 um that and we don't know how um 239 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:37,040 uh how that will evolve but 240 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:40,320 uh what is important is that 241 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:43,680 as we build forward 242 00:09:43,680 --> 00:09:47,200 better um that 243 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:50,240 we make sure that 244 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:53,839 this reconstruction rebuilding is 245 00:09:53,839 --> 00:09:57,519 greener that it is more 246 00:09:57,519 --> 00:10:00,959 equal in the sense of uh 247 00:10:00,959 --> 00:10:04,399 not producing as many inequalities as 248 00:10:04,399 --> 00:10:08,000 the pre-pandemic world 249 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:11,040 had which were widening 250 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:15,439 and now we have to move towards a 251 00:10:15,519 --> 00:10:19,920 uh towards a less inequalities 252 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:22,160 not only for moral and ethical reasons 253 00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:23,200 but also 254 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:25,839 for economic reasons and political 255 00:10:25,839 --> 00:10:26,800 reasons 256 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:29,760 and of course it has to be more 257 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:30,560 resilient 258 00:10:30,560 --> 00:10:34,959 in the sense of preparing better 259 00:10:34,959 --> 00:10:37,519 for the neck shock which we know will 260 00:10:37,519 --> 00:10:38,000 come 261 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:40,800 we don't know exactly when or in what 262 00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:42,079 form 263 00:10:42,079 --> 00:10:45,760 but i would say that the not not too 264 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:46,000 many 265 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:48,000 winners here uh you do have a few 266 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:50,000 companies that made a lot of money in 267 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:51,200 the process 268 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:54,399 um but uh you have to ask even if those 269 00:10:54,399 --> 00:10:55,360 companies 270 00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:58,399 uh given what's going to happen uh to 271 00:10:58,399 --> 00:11:00,720 slow down et etc 272 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:03,760 are going to continue to be winners in 273 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:05,440 net terms 274 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:07,920 i would say this was a net loss for the 275 00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:09,279 world 276 00:11:09,279 --> 00:11:13,200 and my greatest single concern 277 00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:17,040 now is precisely that we are doing both 278 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:18,399 the recovery 279 00:11:18,399 --> 00:11:21,839 and the vaccination process uh as well 280 00:11:21,839 --> 00:11:23,040 as the 281 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:26,800 um as the uh this this green 282 00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:30,320 uh and the equal 283 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:33,360 recovery and the resilient recovery in 284 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:35,920 very clearly two speeds the developed 285 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:37,040 world 286 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:39,360 is doing much better much faster the 287 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:40,800 developing world 288 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:43,839 still waiting and 289 00:11:43,839 --> 00:11:46,800 in some cases like vaccination very very 290 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:48,240 dramatic 291 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:51,680 differences uh promising that this one 292 00:11:51,680 --> 00:11:53,279 billion vaccines 293 00:11:53,279 --> 00:11:56,480 that just happened a few a few 294 00:11:56,480 --> 00:12:00,480 days ago at the g7 uh very promising 295 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:04,320 um a set of promising uh commitments by 296 00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:07,519 uh the largest economies in the world uh 297 00:12:07,519 --> 00:12:11,920 but i think today uh when we take stock 298 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:14,399 of the impact of the pandemic i would 299 00:12:14,399 --> 00:12:15,200 say 300 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:18,880 mostly losers thank you 301 00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:22,959 thank you very much it's 302 00:12:23,279 --> 00:12:26,160 kind of tough uh assessment of the of 303 00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:27,920 the pandemic itself more on the 304 00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:30,240 probably negative side uh it will be 305 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:31,839 interesting to hear from the others 306 00:12:31,839 --> 00:12:33,680 whether there are positive aspects of 307 00:12:33,680 --> 00:12:34,959 the pandemic which 308 00:12:34,959 --> 00:12:37,680 might actually uh lead to some positive 309 00:12:37,680 --> 00:12:39,600 developments uh in in the world 310 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:42,480 so i would go to to harry harry broadman 311 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:43,920 uh how do you see the 312 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:47,120 issue of winners losers uh including and 313 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:48,320 i know this has been 314 00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:49,839 your focus of your research and 315 00:12:49,839 --> 00:12:51,440 attention going back to 316 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:53,600 to the world bank in terms of uh also 317 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:54,880 in-country 318 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:58,000 uh developments and uh differentiation 319 00:12:58,000 --> 00:12:58,959 in terms of uh 320 00:12:58,959 --> 00:13:02,000 sectors but also regional inequalities 321 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:04,839 uh within the countries um so please 322 00:13:04,839 --> 00:13:06,800 harry 323 00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:09,120 yeah oh thank you very much i i have to 324 00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:11,600 say i i do agree with angel that 325 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:14,800 we are all worse off as a result of this 326 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:15,760 pandemic 327 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:19,120 um it's and it's not this is not 328 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:21,600 like the financial crisis obviously in 329 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:23,440 the financial crisis 330 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:26,480 some scars were left in this case there 331 00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:27,279 are 332 00:13:27,279 --> 00:13:29,360 probably different types of scars and 333 00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:32,079 long-lasting in terms of the economies 334 00:13:32,079 --> 00:13:35,120 both of the advanced countries uh and 335 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:38,399 and the emerging markets um 336 00:13:38,399 --> 00:13:40,399 i would say you know i would make a 337 00:13:40,399 --> 00:13:42,240 couple of points one 338 00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:45,519 uh the pandemic any disturbance 339 00:13:45,519 --> 00:13:47,199 uh economic disturbance health 340 00:13:47,199 --> 00:13:49,600 disturbance is going to produce 341 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:52,639 you know in effect uh winners and 342 00:13:52,639 --> 00:13:56,480 and losers um however 343 00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:59,680 if we think about the pandemic as a as a 344 00:13:59,680 --> 00:14:02,959 as a one-time crisis hopefully 345 00:14:02,959 --> 00:14:05,120 it's important to distinguish between 346 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:07,760 changes that were already underway 347 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:10,720 in other words structural changes and 348 00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:12,639 the cyclical changes if you will 349 00:14:12,639 --> 00:14:15,360 that were engendered by the pandemic and 350 00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:16,160 so 351 00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:18,959 when we think about uh industries and 352 00:14:18,959 --> 00:14:19,680 countries 353 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:21,760 you know how how have they been affected 354 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:25,360 as we as we hopefully come out of this 355 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:28,639 one of the obvious changes is the way 356 00:14:28,639 --> 00:14:29,360 that people 357 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:32,240 work and the way that the services 358 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:34,320 industries are going to be 359 00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:36,800 structured going forward and when you 360 00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:38,560 think about 361 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:42,959 shopping as we all know going to a store 362 00:14:42,959 --> 00:14:46,639 now to buy certain things not all things 363 00:14:46,639 --> 00:14:50,000 you might well just do this by your desk 364 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:52,720 and wait for a company to deliver the 365 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:53,760 goods so there's 366 00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:56,000 differences ways and work the question 367 00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:58,160 though is you know how will certain 368 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:00,079 people of different incomes be able to 369 00:15:00,079 --> 00:15:00,639 do that 370 00:15:00,639 --> 00:15:03,680 how much access do they have to the 371 00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:04,320 services 372 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:06,800 infrastructure will they be the ones 373 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:08,480 that need to go to the stores for 374 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:10,560 instance or go to the factories 375 00:15:10,560 --> 00:15:14,079 um i think the other question is 376 00:15:14,079 --> 00:15:16,800 when you think about uh structural 377 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:19,199 changes that were already underway 378 00:15:19,199 --> 00:15:21,440 uh think about artificial intelligence 379 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:23,199 and digitalization 380 00:15:23,199 --> 00:15:25,279 and so when we think about the logistics 381 00:15:25,279 --> 00:15:27,600 industry or the shipping industry 382 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:29,759 there were already changes in in the 383 00:15:29,759 --> 00:15:30,800 works except for 384 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:33,279 delivery of certain goods at the last 385 00:15:33,279 --> 00:15:34,399 mile 386 00:15:34,399 --> 00:15:37,759 where shipping and logistics was already 387 00:15:37,759 --> 00:15:39,279 becoming digitalized 388 00:15:39,279 --> 00:15:42,320 and more animated if you will and that 389 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:43,759 is a trend that is going to be 390 00:15:43,759 --> 00:15:47,199 accelerated as a result of the pandemic 391 00:15:47,199 --> 00:15:50,320 when we think in terms of the countries 392 00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:52,959 you know the advanced countries 393 00:15:52,959 --> 00:15:54,320 particularly because they 394 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:56,160 have more resilient health systems and 395 00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:57,519 more resilient 396 00:15:57,519 --> 00:15:59,600 economies you know they're they're 397 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:01,199 certainly coming out of this 398 00:16:01,199 --> 00:16:03,600 at least according to the latest uh 399 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:04,800 forecasts 400 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:07,839 you know they're beginning to rebound 401 00:16:07,839 --> 00:16:11,360 obviously whether that rebound will be 402 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:12,320 permanent 403 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:15,600 and and you know 404 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:18,639 lasting in terms of robust growth for 405 00:16:18,639 --> 00:16:20,720 several years to come i think i think is 406 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:22,240 is an open question 407 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:24,160 and that brings me to the other part of 408 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:25,839 the world the emerging markets and the 409 00:16:25,839 --> 00:16:27,279 poor countries 410 00:16:27,279 --> 00:16:29,519 which i think are decidedly much worse 411 00:16:29,519 --> 00:16:32,399 off both for the mortality issues that 412 00:16:32,399 --> 00:16:34,320 angel raises that we're already 413 00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:35,600 concerned about and 414 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:38,639 knowledgeable of but you know how will 415 00:16:38,639 --> 00:16:39,440 they 416 00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:41,920 begin to restructure their workplaces 417 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:43,440 how will they begin 418 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:45,920 to restructure how they trade with not 419 00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:46,639 just 420 00:16:46,639 --> 00:16:48,880 each other but with other countries of 421 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:50,959 the world and i think 422 00:16:50,959 --> 00:16:53,360 net net i think populations in the 423 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:54,800 emerging markets 424 00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:58,079 uh will be much worse off as a result of 425 00:16:58,079 --> 00:17:01,920 of the pandemic um i do think that this 426 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:04,959 is we need to emphasize that this is a 427 00:17:04,959 --> 00:17:06,079 work in progress 428 00:17:06,079 --> 00:17:08,400 that yes we we appear to be coming out 429 00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:09,919 of the pandemic 430 00:17:09,919 --> 00:17:13,199 but i think it's really quite premature 431 00:17:13,199 --> 00:17:16,240 for those of us uh who are on the front 432 00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:17,919 lines at least thinking about this from 433 00:17:17,919 --> 00:17:18,959 an economic 434 00:17:18,959 --> 00:17:21,919 perspective uh to believe that that it's 435 00:17:21,919 --> 00:17:22,640 over 436 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:24,559 it may be over for the wealthy countries 437 00:17:24,559 --> 00:17:25,679 but it's certainly not 438 00:17:25,679 --> 00:17:28,960 over for the vast population of the 439 00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:32,000 of the planet and to the extent that 440 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,480 um those other countries are not 441 00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:37,120 vaccinated there is not sufficient herd 442 00:17:37,120 --> 00:17:38,880 immunity within the countries the 443 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:40,320 emerging markets 444 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:42,080 that means that all of us around the 445 00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:43,360 world are not 446 00:17:43,360 --> 00:17:46,960 going to enjoy any kind of herd immunity 447 00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:48,880 if we believe that the globalized 448 00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:51,120 economy is here to stay which i think it 449 00:17:51,120 --> 00:17:51,840 is 450 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:54,240 but it does raise the question about 451 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:56,400 whether or not there will be 452 00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:59,360 a splitting if you will a decoupling 453 00:17:59,360 --> 00:18:00,720 from the advanced countries and the 454 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:03,120 emerging markets in terms of 455 00:18:03,120 --> 00:18:08,160 economic growth for the last two decades 456 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:11,280 the gdp growth rate of gdp growth 457 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:15,919 real terms in in emerging markets 458 00:18:15,919 --> 00:18:19,200 really was about twice the rate of gdp 459 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:20,880 growth in real terms of the advanced 460 00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:22,720 economies regardless of the business 461 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:24,160 cycle 462 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:26,320 that is shown in the data very clearly i 463 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:28,720 think now the question before us is 464 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:29,440 whether 465 00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:31,679 there's going to be a structural shift 466 00:18:31,679 --> 00:18:33,200 in that whether or not growth in 467 00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:35,360 emerging markets put aside china i'm 468 00:18:35,360 --> 00:18:36,320 talking about 469 00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:38,400 the other emerging markets and put aside 470 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:39,440 india 471 00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:42,000 whether or not their growth will be uh 472 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:44,240 downgraded significantly and whether 473 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:46,880 there will be a structural split 474 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:48,320 between the poor and the wealthy 475 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:50,000 countries so those i think 476 00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:51,679 when i think about the winners and the 477 00:18:51,679 --> 00:18:54,080 losers so to speak of the pandemic 478 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:55,600 that's that's the way i think about 479 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:57,799 things and i think it's it's really a 480 00:18:57,799 --> 00:18:58,960 decidedly 481 00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:01,760 mixed picture and we are not out of the 482 00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:02,640 woods yet by 483 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:06,480 by a long stretch in mice in my view 484 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:08,799 thank you very much harry i think you 485 00:19:08,799 --> 00:19:10,000 are certainly right that uh 486 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:12,480 it is a mixed mixed picture in terms of 487 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:13,200 the recovery 488 00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:16,160 the recovery is very uneven um i think 489 00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:16,799 when 490 00:19:16,799 --> 00:19:19,679 i go to the streets of bratislava i was 491 00:19:19,679 --> 00:19:21,600 and i live in prague i was last week in 492 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:22,640 budapest 493 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:25,440 i can see many people outside there is a 494 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:26,720 kind of 495 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:29,440 good spirit uh that we are getting to 496 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:31,360 this recovery phase and 497 00:19:31,360 --> 00:19:34,000 people can enjoy more the freedom and 498 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:35,360 being outside 499 00:19:35,360 --> 00:19:38,160 so i feel a lot of optimism plus some 500 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:40,160 numbers which are coming out of 501 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:42,080 of of the economic situation in the 502 00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:43,440 countries of at least of the european 503 00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:44,799 union show to the 504 00:19:44,799 --> 00:19:47,760 positive evolution and very strong 505 00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:48,799 recovery 506 00:19:48,799 --> 00:19:51,520 but at the same time as you mentioned in 507 00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:53,600 the developing emerging markets 508 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:55,520 the picture is quite different so this 509 00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:57,280 issue of decoupling as you 510 00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:59,520 mentioned here is a is a real one and uh 511 00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:00,480 question is how to 512 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:03,039 how to address it but let's go to to 513 00:20:03,039 --> 00:20:03,679 alex 514 00:20:03,679 --> 00:20:05,679 how do you see this issue of winners and 515 00:20:05,679 --> 00:20:07,840 losers and what's uh what's your 516 00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:11,200 point of view yeah 517 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:13,120 sure thanks and and you know thanks to 518 00:20:13,120 --> 00:20:15,280 angel and harry for their 519 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:18,480 uh outlines um i agree with a lot of it 520 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:20,000 but i'll probably put a slightly more 521 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,640 positive spin to the whole package and 522 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:24,320 let me phrase it like this 523 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:26,480 i think probably the more relevant 524 00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:27,360 question 525 00:20:27,360 --> 00:20:30,559 than winners and losers is what did we 526 00:20:30,559 --> 00:20:31,280 learn 527 00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:32,799 and i think this is then going to 528 00:20:32,799 --> 00:20:34,720 determine whether you're a winner or a 529 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:36,880 loser in this overall situation and and 530 00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:38,960 you know in academia you never get black 531 00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:40,159 and white dancers 532 00:20:40,159 --> 00:20:42,799 you just the every answer to every 533 00:20:42,799 --> 00:20:45,280 question is well it depends 534 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:47,360 so it depends i mean first observation 535 00:20:47,360 --> 00:20:49,120 much like was said earlier this is a 536 00:20:49,120 --> 00:20:50,480 global crisis 537 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:53,440 uh and in many ways it's a crisis that 538 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:54,080 uh 539 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:57,120 from a health perspective uh hit us 540 00:20:57,120 --> 00:20:59,520 symmetrically in other words we're all 541 00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:00,960 uh equally touched 542 00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:03,440 by the virus in one way or another 543 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:05,760 there's no defense mechanism as 544 00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:08,240 as such but then in terms of the actual 545 00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:09,760 impact and how it hit 546 00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:13,440 us globally regionally and otherwise 547 00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:16,880 it is of course very asymmetrical 548 00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,520 i think this crisis is transnational 549 00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:20,000 across 550 00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:24,240 border and i think what basically 551 00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:27,039 we need to try to assess and understand 552 00:21:27,039 --> 00:21:27,440 uh 553 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:30,159 is is three elements of it the political 554 00:21:30,159 --> 00:21:32,720 the economic and the health perspective 555 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:35,280 and if i wind those i think a lot of 556 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:37,760 political leaders at the moment 557 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:39,840 they understand that they will be judged 558 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:42,559 on the basis of three criteria 559 00:21:42,559 --> 00:21:45,039 in how they have managed this pandemic 560 00:21:45,039 --> 00:21:47,039 number one is very morbid 561 00:21:47,039 --> 00:21:50,000 it's the number of dead it can either be 562 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:50,559 you know 563 00:21:50,559 --> 00:21:54,559 counted by per capita or accrued 564 00:21:54,559 --> 00:21:57,039 casualties so in the united states uh 565 00:21:57,039 --> 00:21:59,280 just today or yesterday i think 566 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:02,960 it surpassed the figure of 600 000 567 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:06,159 casualties to to the pandemic 568 00:22:06,159 --> 00:22:08,480 the number two criteria is the rollout 569 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:09,840 of the vaccines 570 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:11,520 and i fully understand that i'm looking 571 00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:13,679 at this now from a western developing 572 00:22:13,679 --> 00:22:15,200 country perspective 573 00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:17,280 uh and perhaps a little bit sort of 574 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:18,799 internally 575 00:22:18,799 --> 00:22:20,799 of you know how the rollout has happened 576 00:22:20,799 --> 00:22:22,880 in europe how it's happened in the uk 577 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:23,840 and the us 578 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,000 and how then the developing world is 579 00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:27,440 able to 580 00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,480 export the vaccines as harry mentioned 581 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:31,280 earlier 582 00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:34,480 in the aftermath of the g7 583 00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:36,960 meeting the third criteria is going to 584 00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:39,200 be economic in other words how quickly 585 00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,120 do you recover 586 00:22:41,120 --> 00:22:44,320 uh from uh the impact of the pandemic 587 00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:44,960 because 588 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:47,760 of course the economic impact was 589 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:49,520 radically different from the one that 590 00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,480 you know vasil and i and many others saw 591 00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:54,559 during the financial crisis and the euro 592 00:22:54,559 --> 00:22:55,440 crisis 593 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,360 because this was both a supply and a 594 00:22:57,360 --> 00:22:58,799 demand sign 595 00:22:58,799 --> 00:23:01,679 crisis and here we then come to to to 596 00:23:01,679 --> 00:23:03,039 basically lessons 597 00:23:03,039 --> 00:23:06,159 learned now the reason i fall onto the 598 00:23:06,159 --> 00:23:08,480 you know if this was a really binary 599 00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:10,880 question did we win or lose on this 600 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:12,640 the reason i say that we will most 601 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,520 probably win is the following number one 602 00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:17,840 the the biggest winner in this is is 603 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:18,720 science 604 00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:21,360 i think was it not for uh crispr 605 00:23:21,360 --> 00:23:22,960 technology 606 00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:27,440 as put forward and then rewarded 607 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,159 by jennifer doudna and emmanuel 608 00:23:30,159 --> 00:23:32,320 charpentiere with the nobel prize of 609 00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:34,080 crispr technology we would have not 610 00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:35,600 gotten this vaccine 611 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:38,559 so fast so you know i i mean i'm really 612 00:23:38,559 --> 00:23:40,559 really impressed what science was able 613 00:23:40,559 --> 00:23:42,960 to do and also what big pharma was able 614 00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:44,000 to produce 615 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:47,520 uh in terms of vaccines 616 00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:49,600 the second winner in this i think is 617 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:51,760 actually global corporation 618 00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:54,080 to a certain extent a lot of political 619 00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:56,080 leaders who had some nationalistic 620 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:57,520 tendencies i'm not saying that they 621 00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:58,960 haven't gone away 622 00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:01,679 uh realized that on this one we need to 623 00:24:01,679 --> 00:24:02,400 cooperate 624 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:04,720 even uh you know of course we were quite 625 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:06,480 lucky in the sense that in the united 626 00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:08,240 states they'll switch from donald trump 627 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:08,799 to to 628 00:24:08,799 --> 00:24:11,600 joe biden so that sort of accelerated 629 00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:14,799 the idea of of corporation the w.h.o 630 00:24:14,799 --> 00:24:17,840 uh etc etc and actually today the 631 00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:19,919 commission has come out with uh 632 00:24:19,919 --> 00:24:22,880 10 points or 10 lessons learned from the 633 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:25,120 pandemic which we can discuss but 634 00:24:25,120 --> 00:24:27,520 they're sort of quite global lessons uh 635 00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:28,559 if you will 636 00:24:28,559 --> 00:24:30,960 um a third one is a bit of a soft one i 637 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:33,200 i think this has been a collective human 638 00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:34,159 experience 639 00:24:34,159 --> 00:24:36,640 you know we as human beings understand 640 00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:37,279 each other 641 00:24:37,279 --> 00:24:40,000 from all around the world differently uh 642 00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:41,120 as a result of 643 00:24:41,120 --> 00:24:43,760 of this pandemic because we understood 644 00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:45,120 understand what 645 00:24:45,120 --> 00:24:47,840 what a pandemic means how it can hit all 646 00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:48,640 of us 647 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:51,279 uh in no matter where we are and in that 648 00:24:51,279 --> 00:24:53,279 sense there's a collective experience 649 00:24:53,279 --> 00:24:54,960 which goes beyond the 650 00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,279 sort of more traditional identity or 651 00:24:57,279 --> 00:24:58,400 national 652 00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:00,720 collective experience and i think that's 653 00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:02,480 uh an important one 654 00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,279 the two other winners of of of this uh 655 00:25:05,279 --> 00:25:07,279 crisis albeit short term 656 00:25:07,279 --> 00:25:10,320 uh one is climate um and 657 00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:13,919 the reason i say this is i just read 658 00:25:13,919 --> 00:25:15,120 bill gates 659 00:25:15,120 --> 00:25:17,200 latest book on the climate crisis where 660 00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:18,480 he says that 661 00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:20,159 in order for us to solve the climate 662 00:25:20,159 --> 00:25:23,039 crisis we need to reduce 663 00:25:23,039 --> 00:25:26,480 the greenhouse emissions 664 00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,360 per annum right now there are 51 billion 665 00:25:29,360 --> 00:25:30,240 tons 666 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:32,080 actually we need to reduce them to zero 667 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:33,760 so there's a long work ahead 668 00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:36,159 uh but the estimate that we have seen is 669 00:25:36,159 --> 00:25:38,720 that the the kovidia brought it already 670 00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,039 down to 47 billion tons 671 00:25:41,039 --> 00:25:43,200 so i think this was a good awareness 672 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:44,880 type and then finally i 673 00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:48,000 you know for us information managers who 674 00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:48,880 sit in different 675 00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:50,640 capitals around the world in front of 676 00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:52,960 screens and put numbers and 677 00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:54,960 letters together and express them either 678 00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:57,039 on video or in writing or in speech or 679 00:25:57,039 --> 00:25:58,480 however it might be i mean you know the 680 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:00,320 future work is different 681 00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:02,400 i know vasil you like to travel a lot 682 00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:03,440 right uh 683 00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:06,159 but you know to be honest uh you'll have 684 00:26:06,159 --> 00:26:08,000 less of an argument to 685 00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,159 take every trip in the future a lot of 686 00:26:10,159 --> 00:26:12,000 our future work is going to be behind 687 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:12,880 the screen 688 00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:14,720 especially in the line of work that we 689 00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:16,000 do for better 690 00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:18,720 or for worse having said that i do miss 691 00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:20,400 the social contact as well 692 00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:22,559 so this is my take on the pandemic 693 00:26:22,559 --> 00:26:25,200 perhaps attach more optimistic than that 694 00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:28,400 of harry and angel thank you 695 00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:31,039 thank you alex yes i do like to travel 696 00:26:31,039 --> 00:26:31,600 because i 697 00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:34,240 i like meeting people on the other hand 698 00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:35,600 i have to say that 699 00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:38,640 during the pandemic and lockdown my wife 700 00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:39,600 was very happy 701 00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:41,440 because we were after a long time 702 00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:43,039 together as a family and it was 703 00:26:43,039 --> 00:26:44,799 quite a actually quite very nice 704 00:26:44,799 --> 00:26:46,159 experience so 705 00:26:46,159 --> 00:26:49,200 uh and all it's all relevant anyway uh 706 00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,600 i would like to combine some questions 707 00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,159 my wife was very happy at the beginning 708 00:26:54,159 --> 00:26:56,320 and now she says well what you find 709 00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:57,760 something to do you know 710 00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:01,520 so so it's it's a it's a question of 711 00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:02,240 relative 712 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:06,000 relatives yeah my wife has 713 00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,670 a loud spouse problem 714 00:27:08,670 --> 00:27:10,159 [Laughter] 715 00:27:10,159 --> 00:27:13,600 does it mean in finland 716 00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,240 well it means that when i have these 717 00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:17,840 earphones airpods in 718 00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:19,440 and she's having her zoom in the other 719 00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:22,700 meeting she comes to the door and says 720 00:27:22,700 --> 00:27:25,600 [Laughter] 721 00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:28,640 i i can i can understand that uh 722 00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:31,600 but uh i can maybe uh a question 723 00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:33,440 question to you and uh i would like to 724 00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:35,039 i would like to combine some questions 725 00:27:35,039 --> 00:27:37,279 which are coming through slido 726 00:27:37,279 --> 00:27:40,080 and one is actually coming from mexico 727 00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:41,039 uh 728 00:27:41,039 --> 00:27:43,919 uh from from your home country and hell 729 00:27:43,919 --> 00:27:44,960 and uh 730 00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:48,080 it says uh it's coming from mauricio 731 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:51,200 meshulam and says special health from 732 00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:53,279 mexico to mr guria you can actually see 733 00:27:53,279 --> 00:27:53,919 it 734 00:27:53,919 --> 00:27:56,240 on the screen in countries as ours and 735 00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:57,520 most of the world's poverty and 736 00:27:57,520 --> 00:27:59,840 inequality are increasingly 737 00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:02,559 increasing severely why you feel will be 738 00:28:02,559 --> 00:28:03,360 better 739 00:28:03,360 --> 00:28:05,600 i think it's more reaction to the poll 740 00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:07,200 which we did at the very beginning which 741 00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:07,840 showed that 742 00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:09,919 most of the people are optimistic at 743 00:28:09,919 --> 00:28:11,520 least those who are connected to this 744 00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:12,399 session 745 00:28:12,399 --> 00:28:15,279 over 80 percent but i think i hear what 746 00:28:15,279 --> 00:28:16,880 you described was actually much more 747 00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:18,399 sobering evaluation of the 748 00:28:18,399 --> 00:28:21,840 impact of pandemic but if you want to 749 00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:25,919 uh respond to mauricio from mexico yes i 750 00:28:25,919 --> 00:28:26,480 think 751 00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:30,159 what what what he needed was the third a 752 00:28:30,159 --> 00:28:30,720 c 753 00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:34,320 item because it was binary it was better 754 00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:37,840 or it was worse and the the 755 00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:40,880 the c one depended a lot on what harry 756 00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:44,080 mentioned which is what do we do 757 00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:47,279 about these challenges today are we 758 00:28:47,279 --> 00:28:48,399 going to build 759 00:28:48,399 --> 00:28:52,080 greener well we're not doing a great job 760 00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:55,200 uh we have spent about 16 761 00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:59,039 trillion which is about 75 762 00:28:59,039 --> 00:29:02,159 of the us economy just to put in context 763 00:29:02,159 --> 00:29:06,000 um by the way oda 764 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:08,760 overseas development assistance is only 765 00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:10,240 160 766 00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:12,880 billion that's one percent of what has 767 00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:14,080 been spent 768 00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:16,720 in you know throwing at the the the 769 00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:17,520 virus 770 00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:20,000 and it just gives you an idea of how 771 00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:20,799 much more 772 00:29:20,799 --> 00:29:24,159 room there is uh for 773 00:29:24,159 --> 00:29:27,360 developed countries for richer countries 774 00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:30,960 to spend more on what would be 775 00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:34,080 not only generous but very smart 776 00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:37,360 spending going forward to help the least 777 00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:40,640 developed countries but the 778 00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:43,039 now what are we doing in terms of green 779 00:29:43,039 --> 00:29:43,760 even 780 00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:46,720 in these trillions that we've spent it's 781 00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:47,360 only 782 00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:50,080 uh a very small fraction that is 783 00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:52,080 deliberately green 784 00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:54,720 most of the money is being invested and 785 00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:55,200 thrown 786 00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:59,360 at uh well jobs and companies and 787 00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:01,760 whatever all the support systems but 788 00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:02,799 basically 789 00:30:02,799 --> 00:30:04,799 uh what i would call the traditional 790 00:30:04,799 --> 00:30:05,919 type of 791 00:30:05,919 --> 00:30:09,520 uh investment the status quo uh very 792 00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:10,000 little 793 00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:13,039 is being deliberately green and a very 794 00:30:13,039 --> 00:30:13,520 large 795 00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:16,720 part also is being harmful 796 00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:18,960 deliberately you know it's it's it's 797 00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:20,080 harmful to the 798 00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:22,720 to the environment so basically we are 799 00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:24,240 undoing with one hand 800 00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:27,039 what we're very strenuously doing with 801 00:30:27,039 --> 00:30:27,919 the other hand 802 00:30:27,919 --> 00:30:30,799 so we're not doing great on the green on 803 00:30:30,799 --> 00:30:32,399 the equality 804 00:30:32,399 --> 00:30:36,559 well the problem is that uh the 805 00:30:36,559 --> 00:30:39,919 crisis itself you know we had a bad 806 00:30:39,919 --> 00:30:42,320 situation before the pandemic 807 00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:46,159 okay we had a bad situation in terms of 808 00:30:46,159 --> 00:30:49,760 uh trade it was flat with all these 809 00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:51,679 these tensions between the united states 810 00:30:51,679 --> 00:30:53,360 and china and everything else and 811 00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:56,159 in the united states and and europe and 812 00:30:56,159 --> 00:30:57,360 and 813 00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:00,240 south korea and and what have you in 814 00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:01,600 japan etc 815 00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,880 so we had a problem before 816 00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:08,770 we had a problem with investment because 817 00:31:08,770 --> 00:31:10,320 [Music] 818 00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:14,559 well insecurity uncertainty 819 00:31:14,559 --> 00:31:17,760 breeds low growth 820 00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:21,120 why through the investment uh channel 821 00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,399 and investment had flattened 822 00:31:24,399 --> 00:31:27,440 uh the same thing uh you know you 823 00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:30,480 you you did not have um 824 00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:34,159 productivity growth was was very low 825 00:31:34,159 --> 00:31:37,200 uh if at all um 826 00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:39,440 business dynamism the so-called churn in 827 00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:40,799 terms of jobs 828 00:31:40,799 --> 00:31:42,799 and in terms of creation of new 829 00:31:42,799 --> 00:31:44,399 companies vis-a-vis the ones that 830 00:31:44,399 --> 00:31:45,840 disappeared 831 00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:48,240 and then the question i repeat of 832 00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:51,039 unequal opportunities the question of 833 00:31:51,039 --> 00:31:54,159 uh inclusiveness so that was bad 834 00:31:54,159 --> 00:31:55,600 before the pandemic and then the 835 00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:57,360 pandemic struck 836 00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:59,919 and the pandemic has been terrible in 837 00:31:59,919 --> 00:32:00,640 terms of 838 00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:03,679 inequality so again 839 00:32:03,679 --> 00:32:06,640 i refer to to harry's point about what 840 00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:07,519 do we do 841 00:32:07,519 --> 00:32:10,480 about the opportunity now what do we do 842 00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:12,240 about the policies now 843 00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:15,840 so we don't really know how we are going 844 00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:16,080 to 845 00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:19,200 end up it depends a lot on the policies 846 00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:20,480 that we take 847 00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:23,519 and also because a very very large part 848 00:32:23,519 --> 00:32:24,799 of the world 849 00:32:24,799 --> 00:32:26,799 the larger part of the world which is 850 00:32:26,799 --> 00:32:28,720 the developing world 851 00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:30,960 we still have not taken a very clear 852 00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:32,320 position 853 00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:34,399 the only thing that has started now is 854 00:32:34,399 --> 00:32:36,080 the question of vaccination 855 00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:40,000 but as tedros at the who said 856 00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:42,480 we don't need 1 billion we need 11 857 00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:44,080 billion vaccines 858 00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:46,799 now but a billion is a starter it's a 859 00:32:46,799 --> 00:32:48,000 good way to start 860 00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:51,039 and then maybe with availability and 861 00:32:51,039 --> 00:32:51,440 with 862 00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:54,480 uh greater financial support we will get 863 00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:55,440 better 864 00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:58,080 and then the question of resiliency i we 865 00:32:58,080 --> 00:32:58,880 were caught 866 00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:01,919 with our parents down absolutely uh in 867 00:33:01,919 --> 00:33:02,399 terms 868 00:33:02,399 --> 00:33:05,840 of our health systems and that includes 869 00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:08,880 the uh more developed countries in the 870 00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:10,399 world uh 871 00:33:10,399 --> 00:33:14,720 so now clearly the the question is 872 00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,120 we have already rebuilt in this last 873 00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:17,840 year 874 00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:20,720 but the question is what to do going 875 00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:21,519 forward 876 00:33:21,519 --> 00:33:24,640 and then again the developing world the 877 00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:27,200 developing world the emerging economies 878 00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:30,240 what are we going to do about them uh 879 00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:34,080 so i think the the question is 880 00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:36,960 rather than being optimistic or 881 00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:38,000 pessimistic 882 00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:41,120 the question is how to be activistic 883 00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:44,080 how to get on with it how to start to 884 00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:44,720 work 885 00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:48,159 uh towards uh what we can build about 886 00:33:48,159 --> 00:33:50,640 uh you know do a better future the 887 00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:52,000 digitalization question 888 00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:54,799 which was uh uh evoked for example is 889 00:33:54,799 --> 00:33:56,399 absolutely crucial 890 00:33:56,399 --> 00:33:58,399 uh what are we gonna do about it because 891 00:33:58,399 --> 00:34:00,159 digitalization can actually 892 00:34:00,159 --> 00:34:03,360 produce a lot of lost jobs 893 00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:07,200 uh in the lower part of the workforce 894 00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:09,839 the lower skilled part of the workforce 895 00:34:09,839 --> 00:34:10,879 the question is 896 00:34:10,879 --> 00:34:12,879 how are we going to upskill how are we 897 00:34:12,879 --> 00:34:14,480 going to uh 898 00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:17,679 you know reskill 899 00:34:17,679 --> 00:34:21,199 uh the working force so uh what i see 900 00:34:21,199 --> 00:34:25,280 uh is is a la vasil is is a lot of 901 00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:27,679 a lot of challenges and a lot of 902 00:34:27,679 --> 00:34:29,280 question marks 903 00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:32,560 but also i would say very clear paths 904 00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:36,000 to action and to policy 905 00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:37,918 and therefore i would say let's get on 906 00:34:37,918 --> 00:34:39,280 with it 907 00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:43,359 uh rather than say winners or losers or 908 00:34:43,359 --> 00:34:46,000 optimistic or pessimistic says well we 909 00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:49,280 got what we got uh we got the situation 910 00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:50,159 now 911 00:34:50,159 --> 00:34:53,040 uh huge amounts of money unprecedented 912 00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:53,440 amount 913 00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:54,879 of money but been allocated and 914 00:34:54,879 --> 00:34:56,639 dedicated to 915 00:34:56,639 --> 00:34:59,599 fighting the pandemic the question now 916 00:34:59,599 --> 00:35:00,720 is we got to get 917 00:35:00,720 --> 00:35:04,160 a lot more targeted build resilience 918 00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:06,040 build sustainability 919 00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:07,200 [Music] 920 00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:10,720 and upskill 921 00:35:10,720 --> 00:35:13,119 build a more inclusive more sustainable 922 00:35:13,119 --> 00:35:14,960 recovery 923 00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:17,119 because we're not doing uh a very great 924 00:35:17,119 --> 00:35:19,520 job so far 925 00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:22,079 thank you i fully agree with you and i 926 00:35:22,079 --> 00:35:23,440 think it goes back to the 927 00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:25,839 uh to the point that alex made which is 928 00:35:25,839 --> 00:35:26,480 uh 929 00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:28,240 uh what have you learned from this 930 00:35:28,240 --> 00:35:30,079 pandemic from the crisis and how 931 00:35:30,079 --> 00:35:32,560 are we going to rebuild in a better way 932 00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:34,480 and i think about this new policies and 933 00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:35,839 ways how we tackle 934 00:35:35,839 --> 00:35:38,000 uh some of the issues uh i mean they 935 00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:38,960 have been with us 936 00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,680 the inequalities etc uh but they have 937 00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:44,320 been aggravated by by the pandemic 938 00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:46,400 but i would like to move to to to harry 939 00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:47,680 and uh 940 00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:50,000 kind of two types of questions one is 941 00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:52,000 about the supply chain 942 00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:55,440 and uh the impact on global trade etc we 943 00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:56,480 have seen obviously 944 00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:57,680 during the especially in the beginning 945 00:35:57,680 --> 00:35:59,760 of pandemic many disruptions 946 00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:01,920 to the supply chains many countries kind 947 00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:02,800 of focusing 948 00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:05,920 internally on their own problems um 949 00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:08,320 big issues for the global trade decrease 950 00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:09,119 in 951 00:36:09,119 --> 00:36:10,800 in the international cross-border 952 00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:12,800 investments etc 953 00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:14,720 a lot of discussion for example in the 954 00:36:14,720 --> 00:36:16,480 european union union about so-called 955 00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:17,760 strategic autonomy 956 00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:20,960 as a response to this fragility 957 00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:24,400 what do you think is the status or the 958 00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:26,560 situation now and how can we deal with 959 00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:28,480 these issues for the future 960 00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:30,079 and the second issue is as 961 00:36:30,079 --> 00:36:31,599 macroeconomist what do you think about 962 00:36:31,599 --> 00:36:32,079 the 963 00:36:32,079 --> 00:36:34,720 growing inflation and uh to what degree 964 00:36:34,720 --> 00:36:35,520 is this a 965 00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:37,119 big issue or is it something which is a 966 00:36:37,119 --> 00:36:41,040 kind of just temporary phenomenon 967 00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:43,119 you know it's very interesting about 968 00:36:43,119 --> 00:36:44,560 about the supply chain 969 00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:47,599 uh because i i not only was a private 970 00:36:47,599 --> 00:36:49,440 equity investor in companies that 971 00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:52,400 engage in the shipping and logistics and 972 00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:54,640 supply chain management but now i'm i'm 973 00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:55,839 an advisor to them 974 00:36:55,839 --> 00:36:58,720 and deal with investment disputes around 975 00:36:58,720 --> 00:36:59,359 them 976 00:36:59,359 --> 00:37:01,760 was that many people in industry even 977 00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:03,200 very senior people 978 00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:06,800 in industry when china went offline 979 00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,440 because of the pandemic and sort of the 980 00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:10,160 world 981 00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:13,200 shut down for for a moment and and 982 00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:15,440 that's being optimistic 983 00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:18,800 all of a sudden executives were finding 984 00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:20,320 out that you know it's not just a 985 00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:21,680 question of 986 00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:23,920 the supply chain running you know 987 00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:25,040 bilaterally 988 00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:27,599 if you will between china let's say in 989 00:37:27,599 --> 00:37:29,119 the united states 990 00:37:29,119 --> 00:37:31,359 rather what happened over the last two 991 00:37:31,359 --> 00:37:32,800 or three decades 992 00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:34,400 is supply chains have become 993 00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:36,079 extraordinarily complex 994 00:37:36,079 --> 00:37:39,440 and tiered so that a product that 995 00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:41,359 you know might have a label made in 996 00:37:41,359 --> 00:37:44,160 china on it that comes to us shores 997 00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:46,400 you know some component maybe a basic 998 00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:48,880 component is manufactured in china 999 00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:51,200 that then is shipped over to let's say 1000 00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:52,160 thailand 1001 00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:54,240 where an additional component is put on 1002 00:37:54,240 --> 00:37:55,760 it more value added 1003 00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:58,000 and then it gets shipped maybe to brazil 1004 00:37:58,000 --> 00:37:59,680 where there's more of a finishing 1005 00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:01,839 of of the product and then it comes to 1006 00:38:01,839 --> 00:38:03,200 the united states 1007 00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:06,400 and so when china went offline all of a 1008 00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:08,720 sudden many firms recognize that 1009 00:38:08,720 --> 00:38:10,480 it's not just because china went offline 1010 00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:12,079 but because they were the 1011 00:38:12,079 --> 00:38:15,440 maybe the producer of the first link 1012 00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:17,599 in that chain and they realized oh my 1013 00:38:17,599 --> 00:38:19,359 god the supply chains are 1014 00:38:19,359 --> 00:38:21,359 extraordinarily complex 1015 00:38:21,359 --> 00:38:23,119 people in middle management and people 1016 00:38:23,119 --> 00:38:25,280 who are you know working the ropes 1017 00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:27,839 they understood this so i think that has 1018 00:38:27,839 --> 00:38:28,640 really been 1019 00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:32,400 an eye opener for much of industry today 1020 00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:35,119 and i think when you combine this this 1021 00:38:35,119 --> 00:38:36,560 issue which i raised and i'm sure 1022 00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:39,200 also echoed with the digitalization i 1023 00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:39,680 think 1024 00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:42,000 it really means that supply chains in 1025 00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:44,160 order to become more resilient from 1026 00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:45,200 shocks 1027 00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:46,720 whether it's a health shock whether it's 1028 00:38:46,720 --> 00:38:48,400 a pure economic shock whether it's a 1029 00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:50,000 natural disaster 1030 00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:52,560 i think people are beginning to rethink 1031 00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:54,560 how can we make these supply chains more 1032 00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:56,160 resilient and one of the things that's 1033 00:38:56,160 --> 00:38:58,000 beginning to happen 1034 00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:01,440 is adding redundancy uh 1035 00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:04,000 into supply chain it's almost like when 1036 00:39:04,000 --> 00:39:05,040 a power plant 1037 00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:08,240 goes offline you have spare capacity 1038 00:39:08,240 --> 00:39:10,560 to take care of peak problems i think 1039 00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:12,800 what we are beginning to see now 1040 00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:16,160 in industry is investment in uh 1041 00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:19,839 second tier uh other types of ways of 1042 00:39:19,839 --> 00:39:22,320 supplying into the supply chain from 1043 00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:24,079 places that you might not have 1044 00:39:24,079 --> 00:39:26,960 ordinarily have thought of as being part 1045 00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:28,880 of the supply chain 1046 00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:32,880 i think with respect to inflation 1047 00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:34,720 you know there's a raging debate here as 1048 00:39:34,720 --> 00:39:36,960 many people may know 1049 00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:38,800 about whether or not inflation at least 1050 00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:40,079 in the united states 1051 00:39:40,079 --> 00:39:42,240 where i'm sitting is going to be a 1052 00:39:42,240 --> 00:39:43,760 significant problem 1053 00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:46,079 now i think a lot of people have been 1054 00:39:46,079 --> 00:39:47,280 surprised at 1055 00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:49,839 how much pent-up demand there was for 1056 00:39:49,839 --> 00:39:51,760 products for services 1057 00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:55,599 and as a result of some policy mixes 1058 00:39:55,599 --> 00:39:58,960 people are at record levels applying 1059 00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:02,079 for new jobs and leaving other jobs 1060 00:40:02,079 --> 00:40:04,720 but i think what also has been under 1061 00:40:04,720 --> 00:40:06,160 misunderstood 1062 00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:08,240 is that although there is a rise in 1063 00:40:08,240 --> 00:40:09,760 prices now 1064 00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:13,280 this is a natural part of macroeconomic 1065 00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:16,400 resiliency of you get you get a blip 1066 00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:19,599 in demand but then it settles down to 1067 00:40:19,599 --> 00:40:21,359 its more stable state 1068 00:40:21,359 --> 00:40:22,880 and so for instance there was a really 1069 00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:24,560 interesting article in the wall street 1070 00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:25,200 journal 1071 00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:27,599 yesterday or the day before about where 1072 00:40:27,599 --> 00:40:28,880 lumber prices 1073 00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:31,520 have gone through the roof from you know 1074 00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:33,359 home depot and other package stores for 1075 00:40:33,359 --> 00:40:34,560 building supplies 1076 00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:38,000 oh and people began to buy excess amount 1077 00:40:38,000 --> 00:40:39,920 of lumber thinking that they could then 1078 00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:41,920 resell it by making a profit all of a 1079 00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:42,800 sudden 1080 00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:44,720 they're realizing that there's excess 1081 00:40:44,720 --> 00:40:46,400 supply of lumber out there and 1082 00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:48,000 lumber prices now are beginning to 1083 00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:50,079 decline so i think there's 1084 00:40:50,079 --> 00:40:52,720 there is very much an open question 1085 00:40:52,720 --> 00:40:53,680 about whether 1086 00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:56,640 these tendencies will result in in a 1087 00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:57,920 stable state of inflation 1088 00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:00,640 inflation does not necessarily just mean 1089 00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:04,000 a rise in prices it means a sustained 1090 00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:07,200 rise in prices and that it permeates the 1091 00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:07,839 economy 1092 00:41:07,839 --> 00:41:09,839 not just in wages but in the prices of 1093 00:41:09,839 --> 00:41:12,240 goods and the price of utility services 1094 00:41:12,240 --> 00:41:13,520 and the like 1095 00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:16,640 i i don't know uh whether we have a 1096 00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:19,680 serious inflation bound uh but i do have 1097 00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:20,000 a 1098 00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:22,079 fair amount of confidence at this point 1099 00:41:22,079 --> 00:41:23,200 with respect to 1100 00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:25,440 the federal reserve policy where you 1101 00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:27,520 know interest rates are extraordinarily 1102 00:41:27,520 --> 00:41:29,520 low so there's there's ammunition that 1103 00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:30,400 they could use 1104 00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:32,640 the question is will they overshoot and 1105 00:41:32,640 --> 00:41:34,319 that's what the debate is about whether 1106 00:41:34,319 --> 00:41:34,960 or not 1107 00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:36,480 they might raise interest rates too 1108 00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:38,800 quickly and then force us into 1109 00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:41,359 a deep recession but i think this is 1110 00:41:41,359 --> 00:41:42,000 still 1111 00:41:42,000 --> 00:41:45,599 very much a painting in progress and i 1112 00:41:45,599 --> 00:41:47,599 would tell people who are 1113 00:41:47,599 --> 00:41:49,440 extraordinarily worried about 1114 00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:51,680 inflation to take a deep breath and 1115 00:41:51,680 --> 00:41:52,800 let's just see 1116 00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:54,640 how things pan out over the next month 1117 00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:56,319 or so to figure out whether or not this 1118 00:41:56,319 --> 00:41:58,079 is a sustained 1119 00:41:58,079 --> 00:42:01,680 change in demand leading to real 1120 00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:05,520 rises and prices thank you harry 1121 00:42:05,520 --> 00:42:07,359 thank you and uh because we don't have 1122 00:42:07,359 --> 00:42:08,720 much time we have uh 1123 00:42:08,720 --> 00:42:11,200 uh three minutes left uh so before i go 1124 00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:12,000 to alex 1125 00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:14,400 uh i want to use the question which came 1126 00:42:14,400 --> 00:42:16,800 via slido 1127 00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:19,200 basically i think we can show the 1128 00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:21,760 question itself 1129 00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:23,520 should companies with fragile balance 1130 00:42:23,520 --> 00:42:24,880 sheets even 1131 00:42:24,880 --> 00:42:27,359 pre-endemic right to the recovery wave 1132 00:42:27,359 --> 00:42:29,200 benefit from the government help 1133 00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:32,240 i i think i would formulate it in a way 1134 00:42:32,240 --> 00:42:35,119 what is the role of governments in this 1135 00:42:35,119 --> 00:42:36,880 recovery phase 1136 00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:40,079 and we have seen many types of responses 1137 00:42:40,079 --> 00:42:42,079 during the pandemic especially in the 1138 00:42:42,079 --> 00:42:44,000 form of providing a lot of liquidity 1139 00:42:44,000 --> 00:42:47,520 to the markets monetary easing different 1140 00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:49,440 guarantee schemes which were developed 1141 00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:51,680 for small medium enterprises to be able 1142 00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:53,359 to survive 1143 00:42:53,359 --> 00:42:55,200 now as we are getting out of this 1144 00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:57,200 situation of course with high 1145 00:42:57,200 --> 00:43:00,880 public debt deficits etc to what degree 1146 00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:03,440 should governments play a proactive role 1147 00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:03,920 maybe 1148 00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:07,200 in the process itself uh we know that 1149 00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:10,319 we have the recovery and resilience plan 1150 00:43:10,319 --> 00:43:13,359 750 billion coming in the in the eu 1151 00:43:13,359 --> 00:43:15,839 and many other uh instruments which are 1152 00:43:15,839 --> 00:43:17,760 which are coming so is is this uh 1153 00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:20,079 the right way should it be more maybe 1154 00:43:20,079 --> 00:43:21,359 kind of less affair 1155 00:43:21,359 --> 00:43:24,480 um alex uh how do you see the role of 1156 00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:26,000 governments in this 1157 00:43:26,000 --> 00:43:29,680 post-pandemic or recovery phase 1158 00:43:29,920 --> 00:43:35,760 no in one minute keynes or adam smith 1159 00:43:36,079 --> 00:43:39,680 brief answer i think in the first year 1160 00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:42,160 the european union and the united states 1161 00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:43,119 if i may use 1162 00:43:43,119 --> 00:43:45,680 developing economies developed economies 1163 00:43:45,680 --> 00:43:47,680 used every club in the bag 1164 00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:49,760 to get out of this the european union 1165 00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:51,119 did in four months 1166 00:43:51,119 --> 00:43:52,960 what it was not able to do in four years 1167 00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:55,040 during the euro crisis number one 1168 00:43:55,040 --> 00:43:57,920 the ecb's pep program number two the eib 1169 00:43:57,920 --> 00:43:59,760 is program from small and medium-sized 1170 00:43:59,760 --> 00:44:00,880 businesses 1171 00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:03,200 uh number three converting the european 1172 00:44:03,200 --> 00:44:04,880 stability mechanism into a health 1173 00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:06,720 mechanism number four the commission's 1174 00:44:06,720 --> 00:44:08,079 sure and trust plans 1175 00:44:08,079 --> 00:44:10,319 and number five the recovery and 1176 00:44:10,319 --> 00:44:12,400 resilience facility in other words next 1177 00:44:12,400 --> 00:44:13,680 generation europe 1178 00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:16,319 that was huge on top of what the member 1179 00:44:16,319 --> 00:44:17,680 states themselves did 1180 00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:19,520 i can just give you an example from the 1181 00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:21,119 country that i know best 1182 00:44:21,119 --> 00:44:24,400 20 billion euros in excess 1183 00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:26,640 lending during the first year of the 1184 00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:28,640 pandemic and remember this is a country 1185 00:44:28,640 --> 00:44:29,040 with an 1186 00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:31,920 annual budget of roughly 55 billion and 1187 00:44:31,920 --> 00:44:34,000 with a gdp of roughly a little bit over 1188 00:44:34,000 --> 00:44:35,280 200 billion 1189 00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:38,079 so i would probably at this stage tone 1190 00:44:38,079 --> 00:44:38,560 down 1191 00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:41,200 a little bit uh the government stimuli 1192 00:44:41,200 --> 00:44:42,000 packages 1193 00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:45,440 especially uh in the west 1194 00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:47,520 thank you thank you alex i think we are 1195 00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:49,280 just on time except 1196 00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:51,440 just if we have anybody here in the room 1197 00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:52,880 who are ready to 1198 00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:55,920 ask question please but 1199 00:44:55,920 --> 00:44:57,440 we don't have any time left i was just 1200 00:44:57,440 --> 00:44:59,680 told 1201 00:45:00,240 --> 00:45:05,280 it's very strict yes please 1202 00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:08,560 let me just say uh leonard cohen 1203 00:45:08,560 --> 00:45:12,400 said even dabnation is poisoned 1204 00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:15,839 with rainbows so i would end 1205 00:45:15,839 --> 00:45:18,960 on a more positive note and say let's go 1206 00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:22,079 and find those rainbows together 1207 00:45:22,079 --> 00:45:24,400 thank you thank you very much thank you 1208 00:45:24,400 --> 00:45:26,000 again thank you harry 1209 00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:28,880 alex thank you so much for being with us 1210 00:45:28,880 --> 00:45:30,400 all of you who came here and 1211 00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:32,079 very participating i'm sorry we didn't 1212 00:45:32,079 --> 00:45:33,520 have more time to actually 1213 00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:35,520 ask questions from the from from the 1214 00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:36,560 auditorium here 1215 00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:38,640 all those who are connected uh uh 1216 00:45:38,640 --> 00:45:39,680 virtually 1217 00:45:39,680 --> 00:45:42,319 and uh i think we have certainly a mixed 1218 00:45:42,319 --> 00:45:43,280 picture but i 1219 00:45:43,280 --> 00:45:45,359 believe that we have learned at least 1220 00:45:45,359 --> 00:45:46,720 something from uh 1221 00:45:46,720 --> 00:45:48,480 from pandemic and will be able to 1222 00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:50,400 rebuild the world in a better way 1223 00:45:50,400 --> 00:45:51,680 especially in dealing with the 1224 00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:53,680 inequalities both 1225 00:45:53,680 --> 00:45:55,520 among the countries within the countries 1226 00:45:55,520 --> 00:45:56,960 and among the different sectors of 1227 00:45:56,960 --> 00:45:57,680 economy 1228 00:45:57,680 --> 00:46:00,000 so thank you so much and i wish you a 1229 00:46:00,000 --> 00:46:01,359 wonderful day 1230 00:46:01,359 --> 00:46:04,400 to mexico to united states to finland 1231 00:46:04,400 --> 00:46:06,960 good luck with russia it's always 1232 00:46:06,960 --> 00:46:08,480 difficult 1233 00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:11,839 historically but we'll come back okay 1234 00:46:11,839 --> 00:46:14,240 it will get better thank you all have a 1235 00:46:14,240 --> 00:46:15,200 nice day and 1236 00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:16,960 see you at the other sessions we have 1237 00:46:16,960 --> 00:46:28,160 here in globsec bye 1238 00:46:28,160 --> 00:46:30,240 you