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[Music]

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so

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[Music]

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[Music]

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[Applause]

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[Music]

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ladies and gentlemen please welcome the

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moderator of the last session

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of the day to elena lazaro

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[Music]

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good afternoon everyone and welcome to

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this final session of today

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uh i'm elena lazaro i'm the acting head

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of the external policies unit at the

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european parliament's research service

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the european parliament's in-house think

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tank and it's really my pleasure to open

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and moderate this session because this

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session

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is the first uh vassal of havel

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transatlantic dialogues

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session so it's the first time this

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dialogue is being held by globesec

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in cooperation with the vasa library and

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the idea is to

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have many of these sessions in the

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future not only here in bratislava

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but also in washington dc in new york uh

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and and

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we're very much looking forward to

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seeing this initiative take off

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now today um we are discussing the issue

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that is on everyone's mind we are

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actually meeting as

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presidents uh biden and putin are also

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also meet in geneva uh i can say that

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the panelists and i have been looking

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uh for some signs of a press conference

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during these past 10-15 minutes

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so uh it is really a topic that is on

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everyone's mind everyone's mind the

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russia challenge

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the eu and the u.s and it's my great

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pleasure to have

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four very knowledgeable speakers with us

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here today

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uh to discuss this topic and the various

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aspects of

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the us and the eu's relations with

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russia two of them join us virtually

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from moscow

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and washington dc and two of them are

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here with us today

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in bratislava so i'd like to first

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welcome andre cortonov director general

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of the russian international affairs

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council in moscow it's a pleasure to

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have you with us

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uh if if if only by by video

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andrew weiss who is the james family

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chair and vice president for studies at

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the carnegie

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carnegie endowment for international

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peace in washington dc

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uh welcome andrew and we have with us as

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well alina kudzko director of globe sec

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policy institute here in bratislava

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thank you alina thank you also for

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hosting us

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all of us here today and ambassador

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miguel zantovsky executive director of

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the vasa havel library in prague

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also our host in many ways since this

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dialogue is also

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co-hosted by the rest of haveli have a

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library now before we get into substance

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i would like to

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give you a few rules of procedure since

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this is a what we nowadays in the covet

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environment call

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a hybrid event which means we have our

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audience in the room

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but we also have a lot of people

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watching from social media and from

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their homes

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uh in a hybrid manner so during the

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session there will be

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three different ways to ask questions uh

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one

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is in the room so that's the traditional

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way we've always done things you raise

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your hand

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and we call on you uh you can also ask

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questions online via the globesick app

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slido you'll find that in your

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application on your phone or your

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computers

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and if you're connected via zoom to the

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virtual studio

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you can ask your questions in that way

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so please keep that in mind and feel

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free to write your questions at any time

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we'll take them up

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at a later stage but now to the topic of

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the day

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the russia challenge where to now

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it's it's no secret that recent and not

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so recent developments have strained

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um eu-russia relations and u.s russia

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relations

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um navalny's poisoning the unveiling of

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russian involvement in

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the 2014 attack on a czech munition

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depot the black ballistic of eu

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diplomats by russia in retaliation for

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eu sanctions

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the deployment of russian troops towards

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ukraine

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um incidents in belarus and in the

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post-soviet space

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but also russia's involvement in cyber

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attacks and disinformation in the united

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states so

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there is a range of issues that our

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speakers will talk to us about today

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and look at um how russia policy by the

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eu but also by the new u.s

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administration uh will be dealing with

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russia looking forward we're also

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um coming into the third day of cemetery

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we've had the g7 nato summits but also

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the eu us summits

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all make reference to russia i noted the

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nato communique

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mentioned russia around 62 times

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if i'm not mistaken but there's also

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been a reference in most of the

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of the communique of all the communiques

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we've seen

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but just to hone in until today um andre

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and andrew from washington and and

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moscow

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the two leaders are meeting so what's on

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the agenda

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what do you expect what is formally

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supposed to be discussed and what do you

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think will be coming out of it

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and maybe um maybe i'll start with andre

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first uh

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so give us your thoughts

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well first of all let me say that i'm

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very honored to be a part of this

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conversation and

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i am particularly pleased to participate

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in an event which is co-hosted by the

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russell

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uh hubble library in prague i was

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privileged to meet vasslev howell a

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couple of times in the early 19th

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in early 1990s and of course this man

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laid a great impression on me uh a very

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a very wise uh and very far-looking

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politicians uh

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uh of uh of the very important period uh

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in the transition

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in central and eastern europe getting

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down to the summit that is

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going on right now let me say that of

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course

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nobody expects this summit to mark

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a new uh a new reset

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in the relations between russia and the

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united states

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uh not only because uh there are

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disagreements on specific

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issues like uh ukraine or syria

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but uh primarily because there are

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fundamental

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differences on in opinions

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on the international system on the world

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uh on the future global world order uh

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on the role of the united states and

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russia respectively

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in this system so this relationship

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is doomed to remain primarily

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adversarial

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for years to come i and i don't think

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that

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a meeting can change this

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fundamental however uh both sides are

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interested

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in managing this confrontation both

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sides are interested

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in reducing the costs of this

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competition

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and the risks associated uh with this uh

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uh competition

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and that uh relates primarily to arms

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control

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and of course uh we all appreciate the

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decision of uh

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the byte administration uh to uh extend

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uh the new stat agreement for another

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five years

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but we all also understand that uh

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the u.s russian arms control model

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has to be reviewed and to be modernized

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so the first decision which everybody is

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waiting for

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is a decision by the two leaders to

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authorize their respective experts and

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diplomats

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and military uh to start working on the

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new arms control model that

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would hopefully embrace not only

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traditional systems

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but space and uh cyber and autonomous

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lethal weapons

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and prom strike and artificial

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intelligence

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no one really knows how to do that but

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we at least

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have about four years and a half uh to

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uh redesign or rather to reinvent this

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new

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model a second uh uh i think on certain

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regional issues uh u.s and russian

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positions

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overlap and sometimes even coincide uh

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for example on syria they can probably

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agree

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on the uh extension of the last year

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united nations

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security council resolution on

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humanitarian corridors going through

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idlib

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i think that they might find some points

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of convergence on issues like

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afghanistan

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uh north korea uh yemen

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uh and a couple of others uh and finally

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i think

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everyone expects that uh one of the uh

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outcomes of this meeting will be a

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resurrection of russian and u.s

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embassies and diplomatic services

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because

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uh definitely the situation today is

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clearly abnormal

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but we don't have a ambassadors in our

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respective capitals

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uh we have uh our diplomatic staff

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reduced to the sheer minimum

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uh and uh the united states doesn't even

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have the luxury

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of keeping its consulate service in

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moscow which of course creates problems

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for all of them

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haven't said that let me also emphasize

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that both sides will have to make

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statements on issues

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on which they cannot agree but they

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simply must

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make a point biden will have to mention

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ukraine

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he will have to mention human rights and

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uh alexi navalny

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although he should have no expectations

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that

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putin can yield and can agree with the

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u.s position on that

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so i think that we should distinguish

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between uh

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issues on which they might have a

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conversation of substance

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and issues which are likely to be

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uh mentioned uh just in order to make

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sure

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that they're not forgotten thank you

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thank you very much and andrew i turn to

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you not only your current position but

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you have a long-standing experience of

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working on russia issues on the national

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security

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council the state department what is

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your reading do you share

288
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any of that uh what what andre has

289
00:10:51,519 --> 00:10:53,519
exposed and what do you think

290
00:10:53,519 --> 00:10:57,920
president biden is really there for

291
00:10:57,920 --> 00:10:59,600
thank you thanks so much to the

292
00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:01,279
organizers for putting together

293
00:11:01,279 --> 00:11:02,959
uh all of globe sac i'm really sorry i

294
00:11:02,959 --> 00:11:05,200
can't be there with you in person today

295
00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:08,160
um in general i'd say i've i very

296
00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:09,200
strongly agree with

297
00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:11,360
with what andre has just put out there

298
00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:13,680
as an overview of the summit

299
00:11:13,680 --> 00:11:16,160
both in terms of the you know modest

300
00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:17,120
expectations

301
00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:19,839
as well as the substantive agenda the

302
00:11:19,839 --> 00:11:21,600
one place where i think i'd

303
00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:24,079
say i disagree with andre just to keep

304
00:11:24,079 --> 00:11:25,600
this interesting i think it's probably

305
00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:27,120
better for me to

306
00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:29,519
suggest you know where i i might not 100

307
00:11:29,519 --> 00:11:30,800
agree with him

308
00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:33,279
um so i'd say i probably 95 agree with

309
00:11:33,279 --> 00:11:34,800
him the 5

310
00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:36,560
is the fundamental nature of this

311
00:11:36,560 --> 00:11:38,640
adversarial relationship

312
00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:40,000
between the united states and the

313
00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:42,079
russian federation and why

314
00:11:42,079 --> 00:11:45,600
the adversarial nature is inherently in

315
00:11:45,600 --> 00:11:47,519
putin's interest

316
00:11:47,519 --> 00:11:49,839
so just to make this point really

317
00:11:49,839 --> 00:11:51,440
simplistic

318
00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:54,480
the russian government engages in a lot

319
00:11:54,480 --> 00:11:55,440
of behavior

320
00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:59,120
that is gratuitous and destabilizing

321
00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:01,360
and so as my colleague at the carnegie

322
00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:03,440
endowment aaron david miller likes to

323
00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:04,320
say

324
00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:06,240
it's sort of like in the old days when

325
00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:08,320
radio stations had to announce at the

326
00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:10,639
beginning of the hour what in the united

327
00:12:10,639 --> 00:12:13,200
states was called station identification

328
00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:15,360
you're listening to this frequency it's

329
00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:17,839
coming from this location

330
00:12:17,839 --> 00:12:20,399
and that's a formal requirement in this

331
00:12:20,399 --> 00:12:21,040
case

332
00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:22,639
a lot of what the russian government

333
00:12:22,639 --> 00:12:24,800
does around the world is a form of

334
00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:26,639
station identification

335
00:12:26,639 --> 00:12:29,040
the crisis we had over the russian troop

336
00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:29,839
deployments

337
00:12:29,839 --> 00:12:32,560
in and around ukraine earlier this year

338
00:12:32,560 --> 00:12:33,519
was a similar

339
00:12:33,519 --> 00:12:36,560
gesture of how we matter we can make

340
00:12:36,560 --> 00:12:38,000
things really unpleasant

341
00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:40,560
we can do it in a place where we have

342
00:12:40,560 --> 00:12:42,399
escalation dominance

343
00:12:42,399 --> 00:12:44,720
and you and the west are going to squirm

344
00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:46,480
we're going to make you really unhappy

345
00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:48,480
when we do things like this

346
00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:50,160
i don't believe the russian government

347
00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:51,920
at this point has been shown to be in

348
00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:53,200
control

349
00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:55,279
of the ransomware attacks but that's

350
00:12:55,279 --> 00:12:57,600
another good example of how

351
00:12:57,600 --> 00:13:00,160
activities that are being conducted may

352
00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:02,639
be at one step removed from the control

353
00:13:02,639 --> 00:13:04,160
of the russian government

354
00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:06,000
are making life in the united states

355
00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:07,839
really unpleasant we had the

356
00:13:07,839 --> 00:13:11,040
uh one of the i think most important

357
00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:13,360
cyber events of my lifetime just a few

358
00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:14,560
weeks ago

359
00:13:14,560 --> 00:13:16,240
in the united states with the shutdown

360
00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:18,399
of a major pipeline that carries

361
00:13:18,399 --> 00:13:21,440
gasoline to consumers on the eastern

362
00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:22,959
coast of the united states and i'm sure

363
00:13:22,959 --> 00:13:24,160
everyone in the room

364
00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:26,240
um who's old enough to remember this

365
00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:27,920
remembers the long gas lines in the

366
00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:29,200
united states

367
00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:31,040
during the iran crisis at the end of the

368
00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:32,399
1970s

369
00:13:32,399 --> 00:13:34,880
so that was the first time since the

370
00:13:34,880 --> 00:13:37,360
late 1970s that my own personal life was

371
00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:38,480
affected

372
00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:40,959
um by that kind of supply interruption

373
00:13:40,959 --> 00:13:41,600
and it

374
00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:44,399
stems from a ransomware attack coming

375
00:13:44,399 --> 00:13:45,440
from

376
00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:46,959
groups operating inside russia so

377
00:13:46,959 --> 00:13:48,560
anyways i'm trying to say is that

378
00:13:48,560 --> 00:13:51,440
a lot of the destabilizing factors in

379
00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:52,800
this relationship

380
00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:56,160
have been put there deliberately

381
00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:57,680
some of them have been put there as a

382
00:13:57,680 --> 00:14:00,560
result of very deeply held

383
00:14:00,560 --> 00:14:02,720
core national security beliefs on both

384
00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:03,600
sides

385
00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:05,440
and that's why i don't expect things to

386
00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:07,120
change overnight

387
00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:09,120
and as andre says and here's where i'll

388
00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:11,600
wrap up this is a long-term

389
00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:13,839
problem and that the problem of you know

390
00:14:13,839 --> 00:14:15,680
adverse adversarial relations between

391
00:14:15,680 --> 00:14:17,040
the united states and russia

392
00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:18,880
is either going to be managed well or

393
00:14:18,880 --> 00:14:20,480
it's going to be managed poorly

394
00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:22,959
and my hope is that the two leaders do a

395
00:14:22,959 --> 00:14:25,360
better job of managing those tensions

396
00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:27,360
but i'm not i'm not super optimistic

397
00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:28,800
that the russian side

398
00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:32,160
actually buys into that idea

399
00:14:32,160 --> 00:14:33,839
thank you very much i'm going to turn to

400
00:14:33,839 --> 00:14:35,680
alina in a minute but i'd like to ask

401
00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:37,360
for the first slido poll to be

402
00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:40,560
pulled up now uh so so uh

403
00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:42,480
uh as you'll see in a minute on your

404
00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:44,880
screens you're invited to vote on

405
00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:46,560
whether you agree on the statement

406
00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:48,720
russia poses a serious security threat

407
00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:49,760
to europe today

408
00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:51,600
and to what extent you strongly agree or

409
00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:52,800
strongly disagree

410
00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:55,199
uh on that and and while you're doing

411
00:14:55,199 --> 00:14:57,519
that i will i will turn to alina

412
00:14:57,519 --> 00:15:00,240
alina the summit has been mentioned um

413
00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:02,800
the eu is not present in the room but it

414
00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:04,399
comes on the back of a number of

415
00:15:04,399 --> 00:15:06,000
meetings between

416
00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:08,320
eu leaders and president biden in which

417
00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:09,120
russia has

418
00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:12,240
featured so how does this meeting look

419
00:15:12,240 --> 00:15:13,839
from the eu perspective

420
00:15:13,839 --> 00:15:16,160
uh what is the eu's view on russia at

421
00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:16,959
the moment

422
00:15:16,959 --> 00:15:19,199
um give us your views on that please

423
00:15:19,199 --> 00:15:20,880
thank you so much helena and

424
00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:22,720
thank you everybody for being here right

425
00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:24,560
before we start and i started getting

426
00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:26,240
notifications on the phone that the

427
00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:27,519
summit is over

428
00:15:27,519 --> 00:15:29,600
and the remarks are beginning to start

429
00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:31,279
so i was afraid that everybody will just

430
00:15:31,279 --> 00:15:32,720
get up and leave

431
00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:34,320
but so we're very pleased that you are

432
00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:36,000
here with us today thank you very much

433
00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:36,800
for the question

434
00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:39,360
indeed among europeans there is this

435
00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:41,360
sometimes nervous anxiety that why we're

436
00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:43,279
not invited and preferably

437
00:15:43,279 --> 00:15:45,600
why not all 27 of us are not invited for

438
00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:47,680
the firm but as elena rightly pointed

439
00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:48,000
out

440
00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:50,560
this summit is rather special from the

441
00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:51,680
point of view that

442
00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:54,079
probably unlike in the past it was

443
00:15:54,079 --> 00:15:55,839
preceded by a serious round of

444
00:15:55,839 --> 00:15:58,320
consultations with the european partners

445
00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:00,880
so there is a strong support for the

446
00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:02,560
biden's position and at least shared

447
00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:04,480
understanding in which direction we're

448
00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:06,360
going and that there will not be

449
00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:08,720
unpredictabilities for european partners

450
00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:09,839
during the summit

451
00:16:09,839 --> 00:16:11,120
so i think everybody shares this

452
00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:13,440
perspective or at least most of people

453
00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:14,079
do

454
00:16:14,079 --> 00:16:16,560
but of course this summit also has

455
00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:18,560
unintended potentially

456
00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:22,240
but uh very useful even though painful

457
00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:26,079
reminders for european for europeans

458
00:16:26,079 --> 00:16:28,399
the first reminder it's the same old

459
00:16:28,399 --> 00:16:30,160
problem that we've had before is who

460
00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:32,079
exactly is europe and who exactly should

461
00:16:32,079 --> 00:16:34,160
be invited to any summit that is going

462
00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:34,560
on

463
00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:36,399
be it between the united states or

464
00:16:36,399 --> 00:16:38,079
directly with russia or any other

465
00:16:38,079 --> 00:16:38,720
countries

466
00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:40,800
this also reflects the fact that

467
00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:42,160
europeans

468
00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:44,320
do not have okay coherent position on

469
00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:46,240
russia so i would be very curious about

470
00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:47,920
the outcomes of the poll that we have

471
00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:48,720
today

472
00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:51,519
but the second reminder is that putin

473
00:16:51,519 --> 00:16:53,040
himself probably

474
00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:56,079
does not see europe as a partner that is

475
00:16:56,079 --> 00:16:57,600
worthy to talk to

476
00:16:57,600 --> 00:16:59,519
for putin europe is increasingly

477
00:16:59,519 --> 00:17:01,040
irrelevant and simply

478
00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:04,000
is not worth attention say nothing of

479
00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:06,240
the possibility of direct communication

480
00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:07,280
at the eu level

481
00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:08,720
yes there is still preference for

482
00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:10,480
bilateral relations with the bigger

483
00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:11,280
countries

484
00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:12,959
but this is very different than having a

485
00:17:12,959 --> 00:17:15,679
dialogue at the european level

486
00:17:15,679 --> 00:17:18,240
and uh when we are talking about the

487
00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:20,160
european strategy there is a lot of

488
00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:22,319
criticism towards europe that there is

489
00:17:22,319 --> 00:17:24,959
no long-term coherent strategy towards

490
00:17:24,959 --> 00:17:26,240
russia

491
00:17:26,240 --> 00:17:27,599
i am not that worried about the

492
00:17:27,599 --> 00:17:29,760
longer-term strategy towards russia

493
00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:32,640
in the end the eu is not that bad in

494
00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:34,080
putting out big visions

495
00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:36,480
and plans for the future what i'm more

496
00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:38,880
worried about is europe's ability to

497
00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:39,520
quickly

498
00:17:39,520 --> 00:17:41,840
react to what's going on and the

499
00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:43,840
situation in russia is changing very

500
00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:44,640
rapidly

501
00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:46,559
and i absolutely agree with andrew here

502
00:17:46,559 --> 00:17:48,080
who was explaining why for

503
00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:50,720
putin this destabilization is actually

504
00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:52,960
the uh not just the light motif but it's

505
00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:55,120
just the modus operandi for him and how

506
00:17:55,120 --> 00:17:57,280
he manages to be successful at home and

507
00:17:57,280 --> 00:17:58,080
abroad

508
00:17:58,080 --> 00:17:59,919
before the summit a lot of people were

509
00:17:59,919 --> 00:18:02,000
saying that we're trying to do

510
00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:03,840
three things basically the first thing

511
00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:06,480
is that we're trying to minimize putin's

512
00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:08,559
unexpected moves and the second

513
00:18:08,559 --> 00:18:11,440
we're trying to make his cost efficient

514
00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:13,679
means of doing foreign policy a bit more

515
00:18:13,679 --> 00:18:14,799
expensive

516
00:18:14,799 --> 00:18:16,559
but for putting these two things a

517
00:18:16,559 --> 00:18:18,720
fundamental for his foreign policy so it

518
00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:19,280
would be

519
00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:21,120
very naive to expect that he will

520
00:18:21,120 --> 00:18:24,240
wholeheartedly abandon them and sign up

521
00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:26,720
to his commitment that he will not do it

522
00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:28,320
and the third point that i want to just

523
00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:28,640
wrap

524
00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:32,160
up with is again goes back to this

525
00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:35,120
uh adversarial approach and instability

526
00:18:35,120 --> 00:18:36,240
that russia creates

527
00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:37,679
and connects to what andrew was

528
00:18:37,679 --> 00:18:39,919
explaining the system is gonna be

529
00:18:39,919 --> 00:18:41,520
international system is going to be

530
00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:42,960
changing a lot as well

531
00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:45,039
and andre mentioned that the uh there

532
00:18:45,039 --> 00:18:46,960
will be a redefinition of rules russia

533
00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:48,720
will actively be trying to

534
00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:50,640
change the rules of the game and what

535
00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:52,640
role russia plays in the world

536
00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:54,480
any disruption in the system creates

537
00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:56,480
opportunity for players who might not

538
00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:58,640
have been as important in the past

539
00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:00,799
and as we will be seeing more and more

540
00:19:00,799 --> 00:19:02,799
attention towards china and the united

541
00:19:02,799 --> 00:19:04,720
states the importance of this

542
00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:07,600
unhappy middle-sized powers will be uh

543
00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:10,000
growing in the future

544
00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:11,840
thank you very much uh it's very

545
00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:13,120
interesting reading

546
00:19:13,120 --> 00:19:15,840
and um and i'll move to the ambassador

547
00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:17,600
ambassador zantovsky because

548
00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:18,799
uh my impression is from our

549
00:19:18,799 --> 00:19:20,960
conversations you've been slightly more

550
00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:24,240
uh wary of this summit and critical of

551
00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:26,880
the eu's approach to russia so i'd like

552
00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:27,360
to

553
00:19:27,360 --> 00:19:29,039
to allow you to expand on this a bit

554
00:19:29,039 --> 00:19:31,360
what are your fears and you come from

555
00:19:31,360 --> 00:19:33,520
a history of of looking at russia from

556
00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:34,799
this region here

557
00:19:34,799 --> 00:19:37,919
so well well i'm not as uh thank you i'm

558
00:19:37,919 --> 00:19:39,760
not as weary

559
00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:44,640
about the summit as i was two hours ago

560
00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,919
i mean the fast signs are

561
00:19:47,919 --> 00:19:50,000
relatively good there was apparently no

562
00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:51,440
eye contact

563
00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,880
and no you know

564
00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:58,240
embracing etc etc and i

565
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:01,760
totally concur with both andrews or

566
00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:03,840
andres

567
00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:06,960
that the expectations

568
00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:10,640
from the summit are unil

569
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:14,000
and that the both sides will probably

570
00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:17,039
deliver nicely on the expectations

571
00:20:17,039 --> 00:20:19,440
but it's at the same time it's very good

572
00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:20,320
that the two

573
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:23,679
two sides meet and that they can

574
00:20:23,679 --> 00:20:27,440
gauge their postures and they

575
00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:29,679
positions because especially with the

576
00:20:29,679 --> 00:20:32,080
biden administration it's a

577
00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:35,559
it's a new administration and after the

578
00:20:35,559 --> 00:20:36,720
unpredictability

579
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:40,799
of the trump years uh we all expect

580
00:20:40,799 --> 00:20:43,840
to enjoy a little more uh predictability

581
00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:44,400
now

582
00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:48,159
but what we should keep in mind is that

583
00:20:48,159 --> 00:20:52,240
this is not a a topical situation this

584
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:55,679
is not a current event that

585
00:20:55,679 --> 00:20:58,720
is kind of a wrinkle

586
00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:01,200
on the relationship between the west and

587
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:02,320
russia

588
00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:05,200
it has been going on now for at least

589
00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:06,480
for seven years

590
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:10,000
since 2014 and

591
00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:13,760
it's been deteriorating for most of the

592
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:14,640
time

593
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:18,320
and in many respects it

594
00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:21,840
is beginning to resemble uh the

595
00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:25,520
uh period of the cold war i mean all the

596
00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:28,799
basic elements of the cold war

597
00:21:28,799 --> 00:21:33,840
are there the human rights

598
00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:38,720
differences the arms race

599
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:42,880
aspect the territorial integrity

600
00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:46,640
uh aspect with ukraine and

601
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,760
other places and increasingly

602
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:54,480
also the ideological aspect as

603
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:58,559
putin is trying to reinvent some kind

604
00:21:58,559 --> 00:22:00,960
of a

605
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:05,120
an ideology based on on

606
00:22:05,120 --> 00:22:08,320
tradition and nationalism

607
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:11,600
and and everything that is not

608
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:15,280
western i mean it's not still communism

609
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:16,799
but

610
00:22:16,799 --> 00:22:19,120
there is an ideological element to it

611
00:22:19,120 --> 00:22:20,480
and

612
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:23,760
vaslav havel was a bit of a prophet

613
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,799
on on this because unlike

614
00:22:26,799 --> 00:22:30,000
most other people when putin came in

615
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:33,440
in the year 2000 he was not as impressed

616
00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:34,559
with

617
00:22:34,559 --> 00:22:38,240
his nice suits and his possible german

618
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:39,200
as

619
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:42,640
many western politicians where he said

620
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:44,159
you know i've

621
00:22:44,159 --> 00:22:46,159
i've known these people for half of my

622
00:22:46,159 --> 00:22:48,000
life you know i've spent half of my life

623
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:51,039
trying to run away from these people

624
00:22:51,039 --> 00:22:55,120
and and as the regime developed he

625
00:22:55,120 --> 00:22:58,400
was quoted as saying that

626
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:01,120
putin's regime combines in itself the

627
00:23:01,120 --> 00:23:02,240
west

628
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:05,039
of communism with the west of capitalism

629
00:23:05,039 --> 00:23:07,280
you know the

630
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:11,200
the kleptocratic uh nature of the system

631
00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:14,080
is is is really the west that capitalism

632
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:14,640
can

633
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:18,720
can offer and the authoritarian and

634
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:20,480
totalitarian tendencies

635
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:24,000
are clearly inherited from communism

636
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:28,080
the question is do we handle

637
00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:29,840
russia how do we handle russia and

638
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:31,679
harval always

639
00:23:31,679 --> 00:23:33,840
suggested that we should treat russia as

640
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:35,039
an adult that

641
00:23:35,039 --> 00:23:39,039
we should not try to treat russia as a

642
00:23:39,039 --> 00:23:42,480
deprived social individual where

643
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:47,039
of assistance or or help or sympathy but

644
00:23:47,039 --> 00:23:48,480
as an adult and should

645
00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:52,240
treat him should treat her accordingly

646
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:53,440
and

647
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,960
after all that has transpired

648
00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:00,640
lately after my country and the united

649
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:01,360
states

650
00:24:01,360 --> 00:24:04,960
and dubious uh privilege from russia to

651
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:06,559
be called the

652
00:24:06,559 --> 00:24:10,400
uh ned rusjesvania unfriendly

653
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:14,159
uh countries uh uh

654
00:24:14,159 --> 00:24:16,159
you know we we shouldn't bend over

655
00:24:16,159 --> 00:24:18,320
backwards to

656
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:21,279
offer concessions to russia we should

657
00:24:21,279 --> 00:24:22,960
demand things from russia we should

658
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:24,400
demand that it

659
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:27,200
frees its political prisoners and it's

660
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:27,600
no

661
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:31,120
not just andre navalny there are uh

662
00:24:31,120 --> 00:24:34,240
hundreds of political prisoners in in

663
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:35,440
russia if we believe

664
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,720
uh vladimir kara musa in his uh in his

665
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,760
uh in his latest uh paper

666
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:45,440
uh they are the territorial

667
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:48,960
incursions direct or indirect by russia

668
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:49,919
to crimea

669
00:24:49,919 --> 00:24:53,039
and to to eastern

670
00:24:53,039 --> 00:24:56,799
ukraine and the important thing to

671
00:24:56,799 --> 00:24:59,360
keep in mind is that we and now i'm in

672
00:24:59,360 --> 00:25:00,880
the europeans

673
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,919
you know we have some tools to

674
00:25:03,919 --> 00:25:07,440
er to put in play i mean uh

675
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:10,799
russia's trade with the european union

676
00:25:10,799 --> 00:25:14,159
accounts for almost 78

677
00:25:14,159 --> 00:25:17,200
of all russian trade

678
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:20,720
the eu trade with russia accounts for

679
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:22,720
not even 5

680
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,919
of the eu trade so you know this is

681
00:25:25,919 --> 00:25:27,840
obvious this is leverage this is

682
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:29,440
leverage to be used

683
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,640
and if we instead of using the leverage

684
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:35,840
uh with the i'm

685
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:37,760
sorry to say that but with the help of

686
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:40,320
the biden administration are

687
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:44,240
going along with the nordstrom 2 project

688
00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:47,039
in a situation where we do not need the

689
00:25:47,039 --> 00:25:48,320
natural gas

690
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:50,799
we are walking away from natural gas

691
00:25:50,799 --> 00:25:52,720
there are plenty of natural gas all

692
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:53,360
around

693
00:25:53,360 --> 00:25:56,640
we're making a blunder that the icing is

694
00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:58,159
hard to explain so

695
00:25:58,159 --> 00:26:01,600
uh i'm i'm a little concerned for how we

696
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:02,960
handle the relationship

697
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:05,840
in the nearest future thank you very

698
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:07,520
much for that and it's a it's a good way

699
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:09,200
to lead into my next question which is

700
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,440
to to andrew uh and i i

701
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:13,440
two points essentially about the biden

702
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:15,039
administration's approach to

703
00:26:15,039 --> 00:26:17,760
to putin and to russia um the first

704
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:18,480
being

705
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:21,200
uh as the ambassador said um russia is

706
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:22,720
demonstrating all these elements of

707
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:24,320
authoritarianism their suppression of

708
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:26,000
democracy human rights and

709
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:28,480
and president biden has made it the the

710
00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:29,120
sort of

711
00:26:29,120 --> 00:26:31,039
key point of his administration to fight

712
00:26:31,039 --> 00:26:32,960
authoritarianism to work with democracy

713
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:33,520
so

714
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:35,440
so how will that affect president

715
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:37,360
biden's policy towards russia

716
00:26:37,360 --> 00:26:39,039
in what ways will it be different not

717
00:26:39,039 --> 00:26:40,080
necessarily from the immediate

718
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:41,840
predecessor but from predecessors and

719
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:43,840
perhaps their right second point

720
00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:46,960
on energy and and nordstrom um

721
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:49,039
is that also a move to to reassure

722
00:26:49,039 --> 00:26:51,600
european allies that the u.s and eu

723
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:53,440
are on the same wavelength towards

724
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,559
russia how do you read that

725
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:01,120
so i guess i i would question the frame

726
00:27:01,120 --> 00:27:01,600
ring

727
00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:04,000
of mr biden's foreign policy as somehow

728
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:05,520
all being about

729
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:08,480
the battle between autocracy and liberal

730
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:09,919
democracy

731
00:27:09,919 --> 00:27:12,559
he clearly has four big priorities as

732
00:27:12,559 --> 00:27:14,400
president

733
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:16,159
defeating the pandemic promoting

734
00:27:16,159 --> 00:27:18,000
economic recovery

735
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:20,159
addressing racial justice issues the

736
00:27:20,159 --> 00:27:21,679
united states and climate change

737
00:27:21,679 --> 00:27:23,440
and then he obviously is seeking to

738
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,360
rejuvenate america's alliances

739
00:27:25,360 --> 00:27:28,480
deal with the rise of china um and then

740
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:30,159
you know and then only then

741
00:27:30,159 --> 00:27:31,360
you know do you get to these other

742
00:27:31,360 --> 00:27:32,960
questions of you know this big

743
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:34,240
ideological

744
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:36,480
framing that you just used i i

745
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:37,919
personally find that

746
00:27:37,919 --> 00:27:40,240
not terribly helpful in terms of

747
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:41,600
thinking about what

748
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:43,600
we're dealing with with russia i don't

749
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:46,640
see russia as an ideologically motivated

750
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:47,440
actor

751
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:50,399
i see it as very opportunistic and if it

752
00:27:50,399 --> 00:27:50,880
were

753
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:54,000
if it were useful for putin as we saw in

754
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:55,760
early 2012

755
00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:58,480
to become the champion of uh family

756
00:27:58,480 --> 00:27:59,120
values

757
00:27:59,120 --> 00:28:00,960
and cultural conservatism he'll do it

758
00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:03,120
but that wasn't who he was

759
00:28:03,120 --> 00:28:04,559
in the preceding period of his

760
00:28:04,559 --> 00:28:06,399
presidency it just became a kind of

761
00:28:06,399 --> 00:28:07,360
moment when

762
00:28:07,360 --> 00:28:09,520
he put that shirt on and said i'm now

763
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:12,399
you know the champion

764
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,520
due to some broader trends globally

765
00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:17,760
in the wake of the financial crisis and

766
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:20,480
the sort of attacks on elites

767
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:22,080
that made him you know attractive to

768
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:23,600
populist groups uh

769
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:26,320
around the world so to me i just see a

770
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:27,760
lot of serendipity

771
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:32,159
and opportunism as far as energy goes

772
00:28:32,159 --> 00:28:35,440
clearly the trump administration didn't

773
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:36,320
do very much

774
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:39,120
to address russia's role in global

775
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:40,399
energy markets

776
00:28:40,399 --> 00:28:42,559
i may have missed it but you know if i

777
00:28:42,559 --> 00:28:43,919
had to think of the single most

778
00:28:43,919 --> 00:28:46,000
important thing that donald trump did

779
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:48,480
as president it was a sort of

780
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:49,679
coordinated action

781
00:28:49,679 --> 00:28:51,919
with the leader of opec saudi arabia

782
00:28:51,919 --> 00:28:54,000
vladimir and vladimir putin to try to

783
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:56,080
stabilize global energy markets after

784
00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:58,799
the pandemic in april of 2020.

785
00:28:58,799 --> 00:29:01,440
and so to hear people say that you know

786
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:03,120
the republicans were you know

787
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:04,559
steadfastly

788
00:29:04,559 --> 00:29:06,480
trying to you know hit russia on the

789
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:07,760
nose and undo

790
00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:10,000
nordstrom all these things it's just to

791
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:11,520
me this is all very much in the united

792
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:12,000
states now

793
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:14,640
it's become a political football issue

794
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:16,080
um which is unfortunate

795
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:19,279
like europe has done a lot to promote uh

796
00:29:19,279 --> 00:29:21,440
better interconnectedness to promote a

797
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:22,720
more competitive

798
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:26,399
energy market to promote a vision of a

799
00:29:26,399 --> 00:29:29,440
carbon neutral future by 2050 those are

800
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:29,919
huge

801
00:29:29,919 --> 00:29:33,039
changes and um you know on

802
00:29:33,039 --> 00:29:35,279
sort of all it all being equal i think

803
00:29:35,279 --> 00:29:36,720
russia will be a net loser

804
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:39,440
from those changes and you know the

805
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:40,399
russian government

806
00:29:40,399 --> 00:29:42,640
has to figure out a better economic

807
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:43,440
model

808
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:45,600
than simply being a supplier of

809
00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:47,840
hydrocarbons to world markets

810
00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:49,760
um i don't believe that the north stream

811
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:51,279
two pipeline is a good project it's a

812
00:29:51,279 --> 00:29:52,480
terrible project

813
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:54,960
it connects back to a long legacy of

814
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:56,159
german and

815
00:29:56,159 --> 00:29:58,399
then soviet and ultimately russian

816
00:29:58,399 --> 00:30:01,039
parastatals building all sorts of cozy

817
00:30:01,039 --> 00:30:04,320
relationships um that you know deal with

818
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:05,279
sort of broader

819
00:30:05,279 --> 00:30:07,360
elements of rush of sort of german

820
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:09,200
foreign policy thinking about how it's

821
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:10,399
better to be

822
00:30:10,399 --> 00:30:12,480
interconnected and friendly with russia

823
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:13,840
than uh to

824
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:16,880
replay the movie from the 1930s and 40s

825
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:20,799
um unfortunately the biden policy

826
00:30:20,799 --> 00:30:24,080
was made at the end of a very long and

827
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:25,760
contentious period of fighting with

828
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:26,399
europe

829
00:30:26,399 --> 00:30:28,399
with the german government about

830
00:30:28,399 --> 00:30:29,679
nordstrom 2

831
00:30:29,679 --> 00:30:32,480
and a pipeline that was 95 complete was

832
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:34,000
handed to him on the first day of his

833
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:35,039
presidency

834
00:30:35,039 --> 00:30:38,320
i i think he sees a bigger agenda with

835
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:39,279
germany

836
00:30:39,279 --> 00:30:41,520
and a bigger set of global challenges

837
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:42,720
than simply

838
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:45,760
throwing his body on top of the the

839
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:46,640
train as it

840
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:48,960
as it passes over him so it to me i mean

841
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:50,480
it's a terrible analogy

842
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:51,840
i don't think the administration had

843
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:54,080
great options on nordstrom um and did

844
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:56,240
the best they could

845
00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:57,600
thank you andrew and it seems one

846
00:30:57,600 --> 00:30:59,200
speaker is leading me to my question for

847
00:30:59,200 --> 00:30:59,919
the next speaker

848
00:30:59,919 --> 00:31:01,760
which i already had for andre which is

849
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:03,760
about russia's economic model and and to

850
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:04,000
what

851
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:06,399
degree especially in the post-covet era

852
00:31:06,399 --> 00:31:07,600
uh the economic

853
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:10,159
situation in russia's economy affects

854
00:31:10,159 --> 00:31:12,159
its foreign policy choices so i'd want

855
00:31:12,159 --> 00:31:14,000
to hear a bit about that but also given

856
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:15,120
the economy

857
00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:17,200
are the plans of russia for modernizing

858
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:21,039
its military feasible and doable

859
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:24,960
well let me start with saying that of

860
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:26,399
course if you look at

861
00:31:26,399 --> 00:31:29,760
public opinion polls in russia

862
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:33,679
the moods in the society are shifting

863
00:31:33,679 --> 00:31:37,200
you can no longer use

864
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:39,279
foreign policy success stories or

865
00:31:39,279 --> 00:31:41,519
alleviate foreign policy success stories

866
00:31:41,519 --> 00:31:42,880
as a substitute

867
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:45,919
for approaching burning

868
00:31:45,919 --> 00:31:49,360
social and economic problems

869
00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:52,240
and this is one of the reasons why i

870
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:52,799
think

871
00:31:52,799 --> 00:31:55,440
the russian foreign policy is likely to

872
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:57,120
be more conservative

873
00:31:57,120 --> 00:31:59,760
in future than it used to be in the

874
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:01,039
immediate past

875
00:32:01,039 --> 00:32:04,240
and it's likely to be more risk aversive

876
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:06,640
rather than risk taken

877
00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:10,080
but people are looking for

878
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:13,120
changes in the economic system i

879
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:15,840
and the question for the leadership is

880
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:17,200
how to

881
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:19,760
balance change in continuity because of

882
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:21,519
course uh

883
00:32:21,519 --> 00:32:24,720
vladimir putin has a ghost

884
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:26,960
in front of him the ghost of mikhail

885
00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:29,440
gorbachev who tried to reform the soviet

886
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:30,480
economy

887
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:34,480
and uh as a result of his attempts we

888
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:35,360
saw

889
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:38,320
uh the collapse of the soviet union so

890
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,159
uh the question for putin

891
00:32:40,159 --> 00:32:43,440
uh is how to avoid uh the path

892
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:46,720
of his predecessor and at the same time

893
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:49,919
to re-energize the russian economy

894
00:32:49,919 --> 00:32:53,200
so far i think uh the methods that

895
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,039
the kermit is using are primarily

896
00:32:55,039 --> 00:32:56,720
technocratic

897
00:32:56,720 --> 00:33:00,120
for instance they are very focused on

898
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,159
digitalization

899
00:33:02,159 --> 00:33:03,840
and it's an open question whether

900
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:05,360
digitalization

901
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:08,720
is a kind of magic solution for the

902
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:10,480
structural problems that the russian

903
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:12,000
economy has

904
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:14,000
if you look at the projections of the

905
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:15,840
russian economic growth

906
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:18,720
uh basically they demonstrate that the

907
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:20,240
russian economy especially at the

908
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:22,960
macroeconomic level is resilient

909
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:25,760
uh they are definitely able to contain

910
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:27,039
inflation

911
00:33:27,039 --> 00:33:29,679
to keep their balance sheets but

912
00:33:29,679 --> 00:33:30,480
economic

913
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:33,440
growth is slow uh it is not likely to

914
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:34,559
exceed

915
00:33:34,559 --> 00:33:37,519
1.5 maybe at best two percent within

916
00:33:37,519 --> 00:33:38,960
next couple of years

917
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:42,000
and russia needs much more uh

918
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:44,240
in order to turn things around it needs

919
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:45,360
at least three

920
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:47,840
four maybe even five percent of annual

921
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:48,720
growth

922
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:51,440
now finally uh the the question that you

923
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:52,080
raised about

924
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:55,519
the uh defense sector i think that uh it

925
00:33:55,519 --> 00:33:56,480
is fair to say

926
00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:59,840
that right now russia is getting

927
00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:03,039
uh too uh close to the end of its

928
00:34:03,039 --> 00:34:05,120
current modernization cycle

929
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:08,320
so if you look at the military

930
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:11,280
expenses of the russian federation uh

931
00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:13,199
they reached their peak somewhere

932
00:34:13,199 --> 00:34:16,399
in 2016 2017

933
00:34:16,399 --> 00:34:19,839
and since that time we see

934
00:34:19,839 --> 00:34:23,359
a decline of the

935
00:34:23,359 --> 00:34:25,918
defense budget not a very steep decline

936
00:34:25,918 --> 00:34:27,119
but nevertheless

937
00:34:27,119 --> 00:34:29,918
uh there is no major increase in the

938
00:34:29,918 --> 00:34:31,280
defense spending

939
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:34,320
i think that definitely for politicians

940
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:35,679
in the kremlin

941
00:34:35,679 --> 00:34:38,159
uh arms control is essential because it

942
00:34:38,159 --> 00:34:40,239
allows them to save money

943
00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:43,520
and to avoid lagging behind in the

944
00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:45,119
technological competition with the

945
00:34:45,119 --> 00:34:47,040
united states

946
00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:48,879
thank you very much and i noted you

947
00:34:48,879 --> 00:34:50,879
started with public opinion polls and we

948
00:34:50,879 --> 00:34:51,520
have just

949
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:53,679
uh gotten the results to our first slido

950
00:34:53,679 --> 00:34:55,280
question so if we could have them up on

951
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:56,320
the screen

952
00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:59,599
you will be able to see that 71 of

953
00:34:59,599 --> 00:35:01,440
the audience in the room and virtually

954
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:03,440
agree that russia poses a

955
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:06,400
security threat to europe today 21

956
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:07,440
somewhat agree

957
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:09,839
eight percent strongly disagree not

958
00:35:09,839 --> 00:35:11,200
surprisingly however

959
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:14,240
alina as i recall uh globesec did

960
00:35:14,240 --> 00:35:17,200
a a polling of central and eastern

961
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:18,720
european countries where the results

962
00:35:18,720 --> 00:35:20,160
were a bit different so if i

963
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:22,320
not mistaken about 30 percent of those

964
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:24,960
polled uh saw russia as a strategic

965
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:26,800
partner so this brings me to the

966
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:28,320
question how

967
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:31,359
how um similar is the view of russia

968
00:35:31,359 --> 00:35:31,920
across

969
00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:33,920
the 27 eu member states and to what

970
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:35,040
extent does that

971
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:37,040
allow the eu to have one cohesive

972
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:39,200
position strategy towards russia and if

973
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:39,680
you

974
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:41,599
uh expand a bit on the results of your

975
00:35:41,599 --> 00:35:42,880
polls that would be

976
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:45,280
very interesting opinion polls always

977
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:47,040
have this

978
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:49,119
an opportunity to interpret them in a

979
00:35:49,119 --> 00:35:50,880
way you find useful of course with

980
00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:52,800
certain limitations but one thing we can

981
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:53,680
deduct for sure

982
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:54,720
is that there are significant

983
00:35:54,720 --> 00:35:56,640
disagreements and when we are talking

984
00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:58,160
about central europe

985
00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:00,640
uh you can notice that depending on the

986
00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:02,320
questions you ask and who you ask them

987
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:04,320
the answers seem to be incoherent and

988
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:05,280
you might think that there is a

989
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:06,560
computing error

990
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:08,640
when you're analyzing the outcomes of

991
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:10,400
the poll but personally

992
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:12,640
my interpretation for the fact that

993
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:13,920
russia is still

994
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:16,640
seen as a partner but also to the fact

995
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:17,760
that

996
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:20,640
for example if we take slovakia and sir

997
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:22,480
i'm picking up on the united states but

998
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:24,240
this is relevant for the discussion

999
00:36:24,240 --> 00:36:26,480
in slovakia more people see the united

1000
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:27,599
states as a threat

1001
00:36:27,599 --> 00:36:29,760
than in uh then they see russia as a

1002
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:32,160
threat so this is also a very talent

1003
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:33,760
statistic and a factor

1004
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:36,880
that influences the way and the space

1005
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:39,280
for maneuver for the policy makers

1006
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:42,560
my interpretation of this phenomenon is

1007
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:45,119
based on three factors the first one is

1008
00:36:45,119 --> 00:36:46,640
of course history countries in the

1009
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:48,480
region and in europe they had different

1010
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:50,079
experiences with russia

1011
00:36:50,079 --> 00:36:51,920
for some of them it's just some remote

1012
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:53,440
country god knows where

1013
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:55,359
which doesn't touch us that much so we

1014
00:36:55,359 --> 00:36:57,200
shouldn't worry that much for others

1015
00:36:57,200 --> 00:36:59,040
it's an occupier and a rather recent

1016
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:01,359
occupier so it is only natural that we

1017
00:37:01,359 --> 00:37:02,880
will have very divergent

1018
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:05,680
divergent perspectives of russia but

1019
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:07,680
also when we are asking people

1020
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:09,920
why exactly do you think that russia is

1021
00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:11,200
a partner or

1022
00:37:11,200 --> 00:37:13,359
why do you want to work more with russia

1023
00:37:13,359 --> 00:37:14,880
this strongly correlates with the

1024
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:15,680
answers

1025
00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:18,400
that people give that they want to be in

1026
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:19,040
between

1027
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:21,760
the east and west so this in-betweenness

1028
00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:23,040
is very integral

1029
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:24,320
of course not in all the countries in

1030
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:25,839
the region but in some countries in the

1031
00:37:25,839 --> 00:37:26,400
region

1032
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:29,400
this is a very integral integral way to

1033
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:31,839
self-identify ourselves

1034
00:37:31,839 --> 00:37:33,760
uh regarding the relations between east

1035
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:36,079
and west and when we ask people why

1036
00:37:36,079 --> 00:37:38,079
do you think so why do you want to work

1037
00:37:38,079 --> 00:37:40,000
with russia and at the same time with

1038
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:42,720
the west people outline to reason the

1039
00:37:42,720 --> 00:37:44,720
first reason is the pragmatic one we

1040
00:37:44,720 --> 00:37:46,800
have strong economic relations we have

1041
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:48,640
trade and that's important for us so we

1042
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:50,320
just want to be pragmatic and forget

1043
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:51,599
this ideology

1044
00:37:51,599 --> 00:37:53,520
the second reason that people say is

1045
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:54,800
that we

1046
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:56,800
underst we actually want to be in the u

1047
00:37:56,800 --> 00:37:58,320
and nato because support

1048
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:00,320
to the eu and nato in the region is

1049
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:01,920
still overwhelming over

1050
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:04,000
70 percent of people say that we want to

1051
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:06,400
stay in both organizations so

1052
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:09,760
if you ask them why uh why what's the

1053
00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:11,359
point with russia they would say that

1054
00:38:11,359 --> 00:38:12,880
yes we want to be members but we

1055
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:14,560
understand that western liberal

1056
00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:16,160
democracy isn't perfect

1057
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:17,839
and we would like to improve it by

1058
00:38:17,839 --> 00:38:19,839
taking the best of both worlds

1059
00:38:19,839 --> 00:38:21,359
of course we can discuss whether it's

1060
00:38:21,359 --> 00:38:23,200
possible to take the best of both worlds

1061
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:24,960
and maybe we'll end up with the worst of

1062
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:26,000
both worlds

1063
00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:27,920
but this is what's going on in people's

1064
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:29,839
head and of course the third important

1065
00:38:29,839 --> 00:38:31,280
issue and that's going back to the

1066
00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:33,040
discussion of the tools of russian

1067
00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:34,720
foreign policy and the cost efficient

1068
00:38:34,720 --> 00:38:35,359
tools

1069
00:38:35,359 --> 00:38:37,680
is the disinformation russia is simply

1070
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:39,119
much better in

1071
00:38:39,119 --> 00:38:41,520
selling the narrative and russia is a

1072
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:43,119
much better storytelling

1073
00:38:43,119 --> 00:38:45,119
even if the story that being told is a

1074
00:38:45,119 --> 00:38:46,880
fiction

1075
00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:48,000
thank you alina and actually this

1076
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:49,599
coincides with one question we've gotten

1077
00:38:49,599 --> 00:38:50,560
through slido

1078
00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:52,800
from tom which is how much should the

1079
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:54,960
west fear the russian disinformation

1080
00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:57,040
machination at play in the western

1081
00:38:57,040 --> 00:38:58,960
balkans an ambassador i'll turn to you

1082
00:38:58,960 --> 00:38:59,359
and

1083
00:38:59,359 --> 00:39:01,359
make it a bit broader than the western

1084
00:39:01,359 --> 00:39:03,520
balkans disinformation

1085
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:06,640
and other hybrid

1086
00:39:06,640 --> 00:39:08,480
warfare strategies of russia in the

1087
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:10,079
western balkans and i would say in

1088
00:39:10,079 --> 00:39:11,839
europe as well how much do they affect

1089
00:39:11,839 --> 00:39:13,280
public perceptions

1090
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:15,280
of russia and and to what extent is this

1091
00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:17,119
something that the eu should be

1092
00:39:17,119 --> 00:39:20,240
uh have more robust approach towards

1093
00:39:20,240 --> 00:39:23,520
well it's uh i'll i'll

1094
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:26,160
i'll come to it but before i do i would

1095
00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:29,119
like to make a small clarification

1096
00:39:29,119 --> 00:39:32,720
uh on something that andrew weiss

1097
00:39:32,720 --> 00:39:36,160
was was was mentioning i actually agree

1098
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:38,000
with him that

1099
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:41,040
the putin's attempts

1100
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:44,320
at proposing a new ideology are

1101
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:47,440
clearly opportunistic and that

1102
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:50,720
he and the the russian leadership

1103
00:39:50,720 --> 00:39:54,560
does not believe for one minute in such

1104
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:56,079
an ideology actually

1105
00:39:56,079 --> 00:39:57,920
if they did they wouldn't be sending

1106
00:39:57,920 --> 00:39:59,200
their kids to

1107
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:02,240
cambridge and oxford and colombia and

1108
00:40:02,240 --> 00:40:05,440
and other places but in

1109
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:08,880
real life it does not really matter

1110
00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:11,119
i mean the communist leadership in the

1111
00:40:11,119 --> 00:40:14,319
last 20 years of the communist

1112
00:40:14,319 --> 00:40:16,480
system did not believe in communism

1113
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:17,440
anymore

1114
00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:19,920
then then the russian leadership

1115
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:22,640
believes in the they

1116
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:25,920
they are proclaiming today but if they

1117
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:26,319
can

1118
00:40:26,319 --> 00:40:28,720
instrumentalize it and if they can

1119
00:40:28,720 --> 00:40:30,640
persuade enough people

1120
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:34,079
to believe in it it's it's it's the same

1121
00:40:34,079 --> 00:40:35,200
thing it's

1122
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:39,200
you know this is not psychoanalyzing the

1123
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:42,400
the russians it's not about the motifs

1124
00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:46,160
it's about the policy

1125
00:40:46,720 --> 00:40:51,359
obviously on on this information

1126
00:40:51,359 --> 00:40:54,800
they are this is a very powerful

1127
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:58,079
uh uh weapon in the uh

1128
00:40:58,079 --> 00:41:01,440
uh in in in the in their possession

1129
00:41:01,440 --> 00:41:02,880
because they can

1130
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:08,160
uh there's a high degree of deniability

1131
00:41:08,160 --> 00:41:10,319
in using the instruments of this

1132
00:41:10,319 --> 00:41:11,520
information

1133
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:15,440
and they are always denying the direct

1134
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:17,920
responsibility and sometimes even

1135
00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:20,770
the indirect responsibility but

1136
00:41:20,770 --> 00:41:22,240
[Music]

1137
00:41:22,240 --> 00:41:25,599
let's face it the disinformation the

1138
00:41:25,599 --> 00:41:27,119
directorate

1139
00:41:27,119 --> 00:41:31,359
has been a part of the kgb since 1930s

1140
00:41:31,359 --> 00:41:34,000
no other intelligence service in the

1141
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:34,800
world

1142
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:37,200
has whacked at this for as long as the

1143
00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:38,160
russians have

1144
00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:41,200
so if they're good at it

1145
00:41:41,599 --> 00:41:44,480
we shouldn't be surprised but we should

1146
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:46,319
also be

1147
00:41:46,319 --> 00:41:49,599
combating it uh with the means at our

1148
00:41:49,599 --> 00:41:52,319
disposal and that brings me back to the

1149
00:41:52,319 --> 00:41:55,599
uh eu policy and uh

1150
00:41:55,599 --> 00:41:58,800
unfortunately it's not like the eu is is

1151
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:00,319
unified in

1152
00:42:00,319 --> 00:42:04,400
in its uh in its policy towards russia

1153
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:07,119
certainly it's not being unified with

1154
00:42:07,119 --> 00:42:08,079
zavi's the

1155
00:42:08,079 --> 00:42:11,200
north stream uh project i mean

1156
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:13,920
uh some people in our part of the europe

1157
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:15,680
the polls

1158
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:18,319
the balls

1159
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:22,000
the ukrainians are livid

1160
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:25,920
about this decision being

1161
00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:29,280
made not so much above their heads

1162
00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:33,200
as under their bottoms over the

1163
00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:36,880
over the north stream and and uh

1164
00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:39,599
it's it's it's it's a serious sign of

1165
00:42:39,599 --> 00:42:40,880
disunity

1166
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:44,480
then you look at joseph borel in moscow

1167
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:49,040
uh being played quite nicely by sergey

1168
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:50,800
lavrov and

1169
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:53,920
and and even saying that on some issues

1170
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:56,160
we are in complete agreement

1171
00:42:56,160 --> 00:43:00,000
uh with russia like on cuba well maybe

1172
00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:01,599
jose borel is

1173
00:43:01,599 --> 00:43:04,000
in a complete agreement on cuba with

1174
00:43:04,000 --> 00:43:06,079
sergey lavrov but

1175
00:43:06,079 --> 00:43:09,200
here in this room we have a former

1176
00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:12,400
uh czech foreign minister uh sitting

1177
00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:14,079
here carlos schwarzenberg who's been

1178
00:43:14,079 --> 00:43:15,680
expelled from cuba

1179
00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:18,720
on uh trying to take up

1180
00:43:18,720 --> 00:43:22,400
uh uh uh supporting the cuban

1181
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:24,640
human rights fighters and so on and so

1182
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:25,680
on so

1183
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:28,880
you know we are in for a serious talk

1184
00:43:28,880 --> 00:43:31,040
about coordinating our policy and

1185
00:43:31,040 --> 00:43:32,880
without it

1186
00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:35,920
i don't think we will be able to

1187
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:38,480
push russia back thank you ambassador on

1188
00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:40,240
this note i wanted to bring up the

1189
00:43:40,240 --> 00:43:41,599
second slido poll

1190
00:43:41,599 --> 00:43:44,160
uh which is uh on the question of what

1191
00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:45,680
is the most important challenge in

1192
00:43:45,680 --> 00:43:47,280
europe's relations with russia

1193
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:49,680
and to invite everyone to ask your

1194
00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:50,400
questions

1195
00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:52,160
via slido or those of you who are in the

1196
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:53,839
room to raise your hand and while you

1197
00:43:53,839 --> 00:43:55,119
think about your question

1198
00:43:55,119 --> 00:43:57,520
i will turn to andrew for one anonymous

1199
00:43:57,520 --> 00:43:59,200
question that has been posed

1200
00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:01,359
via slido which is how concerned should

1201
00:44:01,359 --> 00:44:03,119
we be for a return of russian influence

1202
00:44:03,119 --> 00:44:04,400
in afghanistan

1203
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:09,680
after u.s withdrawal

1204
00:44:09,680 --> 00:44:12,160
so the us administration has been doing

1205
00:44:12,160 --> 00:44:12,880
a lot

1206
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:15,119
of talking with russian counterparts

1207
00:44:15,119 --> 00:44:17,040
since they came into office

1208
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:20,160
about russia's potential role both

1209
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:22,560
to avoid having russia be a spoiler for

1210
00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:24,240
the peace talks that have been underway

1211
00:44:24,240 --> 00:44:25,680
in the trump era

1212
00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:28,079
as well as possibly to seek some form of

1213
00:44:28,079 --> 00:44:29,200
russia and

1214
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:31,599
either acquiescence or cooperation as

1215
00:44:31,599 --> 00:44:32,880
the united states thinks about

1216
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:35,119
repositioning forces elsewhere in the

1217
00:44:35,119 --> 00:44:37,520
region after we complete the withdrawal

1218
00:44:37,520 --> 00:44:39,200
of u.s and allied forces from

1219
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:40,400
afghanistan

1220
00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:42,800
this is obviously a very sore subject we

1221
00:44:42,800 --> 00:44:43,599
know

1222
00:44:43,599 --> 00:44:45,839
right after 9 11 that putin was quite

1223
00:44:45,839 --> 00:44:47,119
enthusiastic when

1224
00:44:47,119 --> 00:44:49,520
when then u.s president george w bush

1225
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:51,119
asked him for help

1226
00:44:51,119 --> 00:44:54,160
in uh defeating the taliban and

1227
00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:56,240
rooting out al-qaeda from from inside

1228
00:44:56,240 --> 00:44:57,280
afghanistan

1229
00:44:57,280 --> 00:44:59,440
but after just a few years the the

1230
00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:00,640
russian government pushed very

1231
00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:02,640
aggressively to have u.s forces kicked

1232
00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:03,359
out of

1233
00:45:03,359 --> 00:45:05,280
their bases in uzbekistan and then

1234
00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:06,960
ultimately from kyrgyzstan

1235
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:09,040
so this is an old issue where i can't

1236
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:10,480
imagine the russian government is going

1237
00:45:10,480 --> 00:45:12,240
to be very enthusiastic about allowing

1238
00:45:12,240 --> 00:45:13,440
the united states

1239
00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:15,680
to station forces in countries like

1240
00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:17,280
tajikistan but but it's something

1241
00:45:17,280 --> 00:45:19,599
clearly the united states is exploring

1242
00:45:19,599 --> 00:45:21,599
um and i think you know it really comes

1243
00:45:21,599 --> 00:45:24,000
back to this bigger question of

1244
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:26,240
does the russian government at this

1245
00:45:26,240 --> 00:45:27,760
point see

1246
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:30,000
threats coming out of afghanistan as

1247
00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:32,319
sufficiently destabilizing and dangerous

1248
00:45:32,319 --> 00:45:33,440
for russia

1249
00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:35,920
or other countries in the region so much

1250
00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:37,839
you know is it destabilizing enough

1251
00:45:37,839 --> 00:45:40,079
that russia can park some of its

1252
00:45:40,079 --> 00:45:40,880
traditional

1253
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:44,079
suspicion and uncertainty about us

1254
00:45:44,079 --> 00:45:44,720
motives

1255
00:45:44,720 --> 00:45:46,960
um that that i think is just still very

1256
00:45:46,960 --> 00:45:49,839
much a live issue

1257
00:45:50,079 --> 00:45:52,480
thank you uh i'm looking for questions

1258
00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:54,560
in the room i don't see any would anyone

1259
00:45:54,560 --> 00:45:56,079
else want to come in on this question of

1260
00:45:56,079 --> 00:45:58,240
afghanistan

1261
00:45:58,240 --> 00:46:02,000
of the speakers if not maybe i'll i'll

1262
00:46:02,000 --> 00:46:02,560
ask

1263
00:46:02,560 --> 00:46:05,280
my own question uh at the moment which

1264
00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:05,920
is i

1265
00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:08,000
the eu and the us in their summit

1266
00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:09,520
yesterday agreed to set up

1267
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:12,720
a high-level dialogue on on russia

1268
00:46:12,720 --> 00:46:15,280
um so thinking about transatlantic

1269
00:46:15,280 --> 00:46:16,960
coordination on russia what should we

1270
00:46:16,960 --> 00:46:18,000
expect out of this

1271
00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:20,240
uh perhaps alina you would want to

1272
00:46:20,240 --> 00:46:22,240
comment on that i wish and you have to

1273
00:46:22,240 --> 00:46:23,280
answer

1274
00:46:23,280 --> 00:46:25,280
but definitely uh this is a worthy

1275
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:27,200
indication that they both sides are

1276
00:46:27,200 --> 00:46:28,079
interested and

1277
00:46:28,079 --> 00:46:29,599
realize that it's important to have the

1278
00:46:29,599 --> 00:46:31,839
dialogue on russia and at least try to

1279
00:46:31,839 --> 00:46:33,520
align as much as policy

1280
00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:35,839
the whole set of policies towards russia

1281
00:46:35,839 --> 00:46:37,760
and here we're talking yes indeed about

1282
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:40,319
sanctions or if we're talking about the

1283
00:46:40,319 --> 00:46:42,000
corruption that's also high on the

1284
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:43,760
president biden's agenda

1285
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:45,520
both at home and abroad and that would

1286
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:47,359
be maybe indirectly but er

1287
00:46:47,359 --> 00:46:49,599
very influential in terms of the uh

1288
00:46:49,599 --> 00:46:50,800
trying to

1289
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:52,640
change the russian behavior or at least

1290
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:55,040
the cut of the russian sources of money

1291
00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:56,640
so this conversation is very much

1292
00:46:56,640 --> 00:46:58,720
welcome how exactly it would look like

1293
00:46:58,720 --> 00:47:02,480
uh i have no idea i

1294
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:05,760
the guest investor yeah i i i certainly

1295
00:47:05,760 --> 00:47:07,200
think it's a good thing that we're going

1296
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:08,800
to have a high level

1297
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:12,079
dialogue and but we should the dialogue

1298
00:47:12,079 --> 00:47:13,520
should lead to

1299
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:16,880
a clear set of

1300
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:20,240
goals and demands of russia i mean the

1301
00:47:20,240 --> 00:47:22,079
problem with russia at the moment

1302
00:47:22,079 --> 00:47:25,200
is that it's almost in a position of a

1303
00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:26,000
rock state

1304
00:47:26,000 --> 00:47:28,480
it threw out the rule book the

1305
00:47:28,480 --> 00:47:30,079
international rule book out of the

1306
00:47:30,079 --> 00:47:30,800
window

1307
00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:33,119
and the least we should be asking of it

1308
00:47:33,119 --> 00:47:34,640
is

1309
00:47:34,640 --> 00:47:37,200
take the rule book back and and and then

1310
00:47:37,200 --> 00:47:39,520
we can talk then we can discuss and

1311
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:44,640
that applies to ukraine that explains to

1312
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:48,160
diplomatic relations to uh

1313
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:52,079
uh to russian secret operations

1314
00:47:52,079 --> 00:47:55,280
in other european countries and to human

1315
00:47:55,280 --> 00:47:56,000
rights

1316
00:47:56,000 --> 00:47:59,359
i mean the thing that changed the cold

1317
00:47:59,359 --> 00:48:00,400
war

1318
00:48:00,400 --> 00:48:04,800
was the 1975 osc conference

1319
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:08,000
in in helsinki in exchange

1320
00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:11,520
for recognizing uh

1321
00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:15,119
russia and it's the post-war

1322
00:48:15,119 --> 00:48:18,000
arrangement that russia was insistent on

1323
00:48:18,000 --> 00:48:18,480
in

1324
00:48:18,480 --> 00:48:20,880
exchange for giving respect to russia

1325
00:48:20,880 --> 00:48:22,240
that was it was also

1326
00:48:22,240 --> 00:48:25,920
insisting on we got the commitment on

1327
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:29,040
uh on the human rights and

1328
00:48:29,040 --> 00:48:32,000
this commitment helped finally bring the

1329
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:33,520
whole edifice down

1330
00:48:33,520 --> 00:48:38,400
and it's a good lesson to keep in mind

1331
00:48:38,400 --> 00:48:41,040
thank you um we have one more question

1332
00:48:41,040 --> 00:48:42,800
from an anonymous

1333
00:48:42,800 --> 00:48:45,760
attendant how might the deterioration of

1334
00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:48,559
russia's own security block the csto

1335
00:48:48,559 --> 00:48:52,640
affect russia's relationship with europe

1336
00:48:52,640 --> 00:48:54,960
and perhaps to broaden this out how

1337
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:55,760
might

1338
00:48:55,760 --> 00:48:58,400
russia's own alliances and the change in

1339
00:48:58,400 --> 00:49:00,000
those affect russia's relationship with

1340
00:49:00,000 --> 00:49:03,839
europe maybe i'll turn this to andre

1341
00:49:04,880 --> 00:49:07,040
well you know that depends on how you

1342
00:49:07,040 --> 00:49:09,680
define deterioration

1343
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:11,760
because i'm not sure that this is

1344
00:49:11,760 --> 00:49:12,720
something

1345
00:49:12,720 --> 00:49:16,880
which is recognized in the kremlin

1346
00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:18,480
uh if you look at the current

1347
00:49:18,480 --> 00:49:20,559
developments in

1348
00:49:20,559 --> 00:49:24,000
the uh eurasian zone

1349
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:27,760
we see a growing cooperation between

1350
00:49:27,760 --> 00:49:31,440
russia and china in the security domain

1351
00:49:31,440 --> 00:49:34,880
we can see new arrangements

1352
00:49:34,880 --> 00:49:37,359
in the security field between russia and

1353
00:49:37,359 --> 00:49:38,960
belarus

1354
00:49:38,960 --> 00:49:41,440
i don't think that people in the kemen

1355
00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:43,440
should be particularly concerned

1356
00:49:43,440 --> 00:49:48,079
about where they stand in eurasia

1357
00:49:48,079 --> 00:49:51,839
of course i agree with with andrew

1358
00:49:51,839 --> 00:49:54,880
that afghanistan might

1359
00:49:54,880 --> 00:49:57,520
might become a serious challenge to

1360
00:49:57,520 --> 00:49:58,000
russia

1361
00:49:58,000 --> 00:50:02,079
and to its neighbors if taliban

1362
00:50:02,079 --> 00:50:05,920
accommodates some other terrorist groups

1363
00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:09,520
like al-qaeda or isis and they will use

1364
00:50:09,520 --> 00:50:12,880
afghanistan as a place from which

1365
00:50:12,880 --> 00:50:15,359
they can launch their operations uh in

1366
00:50:15,359 --> 00:50:16,319
the north

1367
00:50:16,319 --> 00:50:19,920
uh namely in the central asian states or

1368
00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:23,040
uh in the east namely incincian

1369
00:50:23,040 --> 00:50:24,960
and this issue will be definitely

1370
00:50:24,960 --> 00:50:26,319
discussed if not at

1371
00:50:26,319 --> 00:50:29,359
csto but at least at the shanghai

1372
00:50:29,359 --> 00:50:31,359
cooperation organization

1373
00:50:31,359 --> 00:50:33,440
uh my take is that it will be a

1374
00:50:33,440 --> 00:50:35,119
formidable challenge

1375
00:50:35,119 --> 00:50:37,920
for russia and its partners they have to

1376
00:50:37,920 --> 00:50:40,240
demonstrate that they can do better

1377
00:50:40,240 --> 00:50:43,359
in afghanistan than nato did but

1378
00:50:43,359 --> 00:50:46,720
if even nato lost the war

1379
00:50:46,720 --> 00:50:49,680
in a rather dismal way then it's hard to

1380
00:50:49,680 --> 00:50:52,240
imagine how another coalition can win

1381
00:50:52,240 --> 00:50:55,520
such a war with taliban so i'm not very

1382
00:50:55,520 --> 00:50:58,160
optimistic about what might happen there

1383
00:50:58,160 --> 00:51:01,359
uh but uh definitely uh right now

1384
00:51:01,359 --> 00:51:04,319
uh there is an attempt to demonstrate uh

1385
00:51:04,319 --> 00:51:05,040
that uh

1386
00:51:05,040 --> 00:51:07,200
together with china and other partners

1387
00:51:07,200 --> 00:51:08,079
with pakistan

1388
00:51:08,079 --> 00:51:10,640
in particular the russia can demonstrate

1389
00:51:10,640 --> 00:51:11,359
a different

1390
00:51:11,359 --> 00:51:14,319
approach and arguably a more efficient

1391
00:51:14,319 --> 00:51:15,040
approach

1392
00:51:15,040 --> 00:51:17,440
to accommodating taliban and working

1393
00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:18,559
with taliban

1394
00:51:18,559 --> 00:51:20,880
than the united states did thank you

1395
00:51:20,880 --> 00:51:22,800
andre and i'm afraid i've just been

1396
00:51:22,800 --> 00:51:25,040
signaled that our time is up uh

1397
00:51:25,040 --> 00:51:27,440
so uh and and as that happens more and

1398
00:51:27,440 --> 00:51:29,280
more issues are opening uh that we

1399
00:51:29,280 --> 00:51:30,800
haven't managed to discuss

1400
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:33,280
but i wanted to thank our speakers for

1401
00:51:33,280 --> 00:51:34,400
their insights

1402
00:51:34,400 --> 00:51:37,680
uh for broadening up this field of eu

1403
00:51:37,680 --> 00:51:39,920
us russia relations which is an immense

1404
00:51:39,920 --> 00:51:42,000
one with a number of challenges

1405
00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:44,000
and perhaps to finish up by thanking you

1406
00:51:44,000 --> 00:51:45,760
and showing the results of the poll so

1407
00:51:45,760 --> 00:51:47,359
that we see on the screen

1408
00:51:47,359 --> 00:51:49,280
uh what the audience has been thinking

1409
00:51:49,280 --> 00:51:50,640
while you've been talking

1410
00:51:50,640 --> 00:51:52,960
ukraine and cohesion the most important

1411
00:51:52,960 --> 00:51:54,319
challenge in europe's relations with

1412
00:51:54,319 --> 00:51:55,200
russia

1413
00:51:55,200 --> 00:51:57,920
thank you very much to the audience to

1414
00:51:57,920 --> 00:51:59,440
the participants and i'd like to invite

1415
00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:00,960
you to actually stay in the room because

1416
00:52:00,960 --> 00:52:01,920
we will be

1417
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:03,920
joining through the screens the maria

1418
00:52:03,920 --> 00:52:06,400
teresia stage to wrap up this

1419
00:52:06,400 --> 00:52:08,800
day andrew andrei thank you for joining

1420
00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:09,599
us virtually

1421
00:52:09,599 --> 00:52:12,079
from your respective capitals and alina

1422
00:52:12,079 --> 00:52:14,160
and ambassador zantowski many thanks for

1423
00:52:14,160 --> 00:52:16,839
being here with us today thank you so

1424
00:52:16,839 --> 00:52:19,839
much

1425
00:52:30,839 --> 00:52:32,810
ellen

1426
00:52:32,810 --> 00:52:35,969
[Applause]

1427
00:52:38,480 --> 00:52:40,559
you