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[Applause]

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[Music]

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[Music]

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hello

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good afternoon my name is christine

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oakland i'm a journalist based in paris

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and i have the privilege

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to moderate this discussion about

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the new transatlantic order

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with a great panel starting

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of course with general john allen who's

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currently

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the president of the brookings

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institute uh and the latest recipient of

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the vaslas

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havel award in washington dc i'm

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happy to see john

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lindsay who is the senior vice president

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of the council on foreign relations

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in washington dc thank you for being

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with us

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in berlin dr thomas bagger who is the

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diplomatic

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adviser to president steinmeier

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in berlin and with us here in

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uh bratislava bruto matrese who is

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senior research

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associate with the wilfrid mountains

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center

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but before we engage into exploring

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the new transatlantic agenda with of

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course perfect timing

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given president biden's

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tour in brussels earlier this week and

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we all know that he's currently in

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geneva meeting with president

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putin before we engage into this

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discussion

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uh let's hear from richard weick

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with a pew research center

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who will give us the latest results

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about

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the international image of the biden

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administration

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richard

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great thank you so much uh christine yes

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thank you christine and uh

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thanks to globesick for including me uh

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as part of this event

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really happy to have a chance to talk

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with all of you about some recent

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survey research that we've done at the

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pew research center

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looking at transatlantic relations and

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in particular

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looking at views in europe and elsewhere

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towards the united states and now that

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we've had this transition

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from the trump to the bond

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administration so what i'm going to talk

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with you about a little bit

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uh is a survey we conducted in 16

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publics uh nine in europe uh six in the

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asia pacific region plus

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canada and we've been doing this kind of

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work now for

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two decades at pew and we see some of

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the biggest

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changes we've ever seen in this survey

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with some

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very large improvements in overall

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ratings

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for the united states so if you uh for

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instance

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look at 12 countries that we surveyed

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both

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last year and this year

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last year across those 12 countries a

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median of just

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17 percent said they had confidence

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in president trump to do the right thing

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in world affairs

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it's up to 75 percent for president

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biden

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this year in terms of overall attitudes

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towards the united states

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just 34 had a favorable view

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of the us and those 12 countries last

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year it's up to 62 percent

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this time around so uh very big changes

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in terms of how people feel about who's

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in the white house and that's had a big

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impact on what they think of the united

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states overall

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and you see some remarkably large

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differences

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when you ask people about the sort of

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personal characteristics

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and leadership traits of biden versus

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trump

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very few said president trump was well

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qualified

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most think that president biden is most

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said that president trump was dangerous

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that he was arrogant

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very few say this about biden

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by uh trump's strongest characteristic

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when he was in office

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tended to be that many solemn is a

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strong leader

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but even on that measure biden does

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better than trump did

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um so part of it's about personality but

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a lot of it is also about

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policy we saw a lot of opposition

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over the years to president trump's uh

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withdrawing the united states from

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international

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commitments uh to his putting up

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barriers between the u.s

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and the rest of the world in contrast

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people welcome

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the more multilateralist approach of

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the biden administration so you can see

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that for example when it comes to

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climate

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you know a lot of support for the biden

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administration

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re-entering the paris climate accords

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i'll give you one example of that

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back in 2019 when we last asked about

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trump's climate policies in france

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just nine percent supported the us

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withdrawing

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from the paris agreement 91 percent in

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france this year support the us

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rejoining that agreement there's also a

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lot of support for the u.s rejoining the

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who

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for the u.s accepting more refugees into

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the country

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and from biden's idea of hosting a

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summit of democratic nations although

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there are concerns about u.s democracy

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and i'll talk briefly about those in

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just a moment

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so people do think the us is acting more

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multilaterally

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but even uh with biden in the white

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house there are still concerns

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about uh how america conducts itself in

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world affairs

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so majorities in most of the countries

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where we did the survey

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say that they believe the u.s doesn't

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take into account the interest of other

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countries

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when it's making foreign policy

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decisions and that's a complaint we've

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heard about the us

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going back two decades now whether it's

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a democrat

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or a republican in the white house

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there's still this sense that

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the u.s doesn't really listen to other

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countries doesn't really take into

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account

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their interest when it's making foreign

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policy decisions so

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there are still concerns about how the

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u.s operates in international affairs

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and there are also as we see in the

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survey strong concerns about the health

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of domestic politics in the united

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states

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there's a question where we ask people

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do you think the us is

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currently a good example of a democracy

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that it was never a good example of a

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democracy or that it used to be a good

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example

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but has it been in recent years and what

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we find is that

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majorities and almost all the places

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where we did the survey

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say that the us used to be a good

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example but it isn't any longer

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fewer than one in five say the us

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is currently a good example of a

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democracy

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so i think that finding is something

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that you know is very relevant uh

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as president biden seeks to restore

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confidence

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in american leadership as he and others

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uh

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seek to restore confidence and some form

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of a liberal international order

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they're also going to have to restore

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confidence in the liberal

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component of that order and you know

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restore

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confidence that the american political

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system

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can function better than it has over the

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last few

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years so overall this this study finds a

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big improvement

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in terms of how people think about the

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united states among a number of key

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allies and partners

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but they're also lingering concerns

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about how the us

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acts on the world stage and lingering

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concerns in particular

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about the health of its democracy so

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i'll stop there and i look forward to

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hearing the panelists thank you

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uh thank you richard that's a very good

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introduction to our discussion

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uh of course i may i remind the audience

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that

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you are welcome to send questions

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which i will discover on this uh magical

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tablet uh but

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let's get started with you uh general

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allen

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the transatlantic alliance is an old

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lady 72 years old it

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has had its ups and downs and mostly

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downs for the past

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four years the the french president

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emmanuel macron even

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that say it was in a state of cerebral

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collapse

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that was in december 19 in an interview

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to the economist

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would you say that the last summit

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monday

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uh has indeed introduced a new

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cycle in the history of the alliance

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with the

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agenda 2020 and of course the

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the insistence on the the threat that

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russia

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represents that also china which is now

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characterized

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as a systemic challenge

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well it's a great question first it's

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wonderful to be back at globe sec as i

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always do

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in the panels that i have i ask everyone

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if you have a chance

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to look at the colors of the lanyards

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around people's necks and if you see

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someone wearing a green lanyard

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they are the ones who made this

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conference happen so don't hesitate to

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thank those

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young slovaks and the central europeans

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who came to staff this effort they're

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the future of this region

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um i think that the the moment on the

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14th of the

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nato summit was really historic in many

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ways and and often that term

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is really historic has become a bit

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trite but in this case i believe it is

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true

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president biden brought to the continent

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in many respects a

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reinvigorated america

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and he was very clear about the u.s

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commitment to the transatlantic

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relationship

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writ large what we're also hearing

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called the

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euro-atlantic relationship he was very

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clear about the

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u.s commitment to nato as an alliance

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very clear on u.s commitment to the

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article 5

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of the nato charter um

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we should not be surprised that the

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conversation uh about

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uh nato would ultimately come

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come around to the issue of what are the

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great challenges and what are the great

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threats

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that we face and of course russia was

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00:10:47,279 --> 00:10:48,880
singled out in the communique as

293
00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:52,399
as a threat the chinese which

294
00:10:52,399 --> 00:10:54,959
has have typically been devoid from

295
00:10:54,959 --> 00:10:56,720
conversation or mention

296
00:10:56,720 --> 00:10:59,760
by nato as a body now have the attention

297
00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:01,200
of the alliance and it should

298
00:11:01,200 --> 00:11:03,839
uh given the enormity of chinese

299
00:11:03,839 --> 00:11:05,120
influence in europe but the

300
00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:08,000
the enormity of chinese influence on the

301
00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:09,279
world stage

302
00:11:09,279 --> 00:11:11,440
and so there were there were many

303
00:11:11,440 --> 00:11:13,440
developments i think that were very

304
00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:14,079
positive

305
00:11:14,079 --> 00:11:15,760
that reaffirmed the united states

306
00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:17,760
commitment to the transatlantic

307
00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:20,480
entity if you will to nato in general

308
00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:21,200
but i think

309
00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:24,000
also very importantly that emanated from

310
00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:25,360
from this event

311
00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:27,839
uh was the determination as you said to

312
00:11:27,839 --> 00:11:28,560
embrace

313
00:11:28,560 --> 00:11:32,000
nato 2030 but to get on aggressively

314
00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:33,360
with the issue of a new strategic

315
00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:34,160
concept

316
00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:36,399
the last one was 2010 the world has

317
00:11:36,399 --> 00:11:38,079
moved on from 2010

318
00:11:38,079 --> 00:11:39,920
we have got to have a strategic concept

319
00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:41,680
that takes into account

320
00:11:41,680 --> 00:11:43,600
not just the threats but the strategic

321
00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:45,360
environment in which we now live

322
00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:47,600
one dominated by cyber issues one

323
00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:49,040
dominated by

324
00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:51,440
issues associated with climate etc here

325
00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:53,440
is our chance a new bide administration

326
00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:56,560
a robust nato let's get on with it

327
00:11:56,560 --> 00:11:59,360
let's go to berlin uh dr bagger thank

328
00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:01,279
you for being with us

329
00:12:01,279 --> 00:12:04,320
we've learned that chancellor merkel

330
00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:07,760
is invited to the white house on july 15

331
00:12:07,760 --> 00:12:08,480
the first

332
00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:13,120
european leader to be invited

333
00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:16,480
is that a tribute to her

334
00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:18,959
leadership before she actually leaves

335
00:12:18,959 --> 00:12:20,560
the political scene or

336
00:12:20,560 --> 00:12:26,000
is it time for a very tense negotiations

337
00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:29,120
on china which is a major trading

338
00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:31,279
partner for germany and one could see

339
00:12:31,279 --> 00:12:32,480
some degree of

340
00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:35,040
relic reluctance on the chancellor's

341
00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:36,399
part

342
00:12:36,399 --> 00:12:39,440
about the the nato summit

343
00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:42,639
uh declaration but also on russia

344
00:12:42,639 --> 00:12:46,480
with the issue of the north stream to

345
00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:50,480
gaza duke so

346
00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:52,800
more political pressure when the

347
00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:54,480
chancellor is actually

348
00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:56,560
meeting with president biden in in

349
00:12:56,560 --> 00:12:59,439
washington d.c

350
00:13:00,079 --> 00:13:02,800
well uh thank you christine and first of

351
00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:04,399
all congratulations to john

352
00:13:04,399 --> 00:13:07,760
for the to the havel prize i i envy

353
00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:10,000
everyone who can be in bratislava today

354
00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:13,279
um i'm tied to my desk in berlin but

355
00:13:13,279 --> 00:13:16,160
uh on your question christine i think

356
00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:17,200
first of all

357
00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:20,079
you can there is a palpable sense of

358
00:13:20,079 --> 00:13:20,959
relief

359
00:13:20,959 --> 00:13:24,720
in berlin and across germany uh at

360
00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:27,440
uh the message of this u.s

361
00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:30,079
administration that america is back

362
00:13:30,079 --> 00:13:34,399
um the return to multilateral action um

363
00:13:34,399 --> 00:13:38,320
to the renewal of the us's alliances

364
00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:42,079
uh namely nato all of that comes um

365
00:13:42,079 --> 00:13:45,519
uh with to to with great relief

366
00:13:45,519 --> 00:13:48,959
here and and certainly uh in the way

367
00:13:48,959 --> 00:13:50,800
the former president had singled out

368
00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:52,480
germany for assire

369
00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:54,800
uh i would consider germany one of the

370
00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:55,920
great uh

371
00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:59,360
winners of uh of the of the policy

372
00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:00,079
changes

373
00:14:00,079 --> 00:14:02,560
that have uh come from from washington

374
00:14:02,560 --> 00:14:04,079
and that are expressed in the in the

375
00:14:04,079 --> 00:14:06,560
most recent series of summits

376
00:14:06,560 --> 00:14:10,240
at the same time we um we've all noticed

377
00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:12,800
in these first five months um that the

378
00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:15,600
center of gravity of u.s foreign policy

379
00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:19,360
has has changed and is changing

380
00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:22,800
is the there is a change underway and uh

381
00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:26,160
and the centrality of the rise of china

382
00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:28,720
to future u.s strategy and foreign

383
00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:31,120
policy will have profound consequences

384
00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:33,440
for europe and for germany as well and

385
00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:35,760
that's not to be resolved today but it

386
00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:36,880
was just sort of

387
00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:39,680
an opening discussion at the nato summit

388
00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:41,760
and the g7 summit that will continue in

389
00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:42,800
the years to come

390
00:14:42,800 --> 00:14:44,399
and i think it will be one of the great

391
00:14:44,399 --> 00:14:46,639
challenges to navigate that for any new

392
00:14:46,639 --> 00:14:48,399
german government that will emerge from

393
00:14:48,399 --> 00:14:50,399
our own september elections

394
00:14:50,399 --> 00:14:52,880
now there's also a protocol side to this

395
00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:55,199
as things are systematic with this u.s

396
00:14:55,199 --> 00:14:57,120
administration and we've seen

397
00:14:57,120 --> 00:14:58,800
the japanese prime minister and the

398
00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:00,720
south korean president being the first

399
00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:01,440
guests in

400
00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:03,760
the white house now mackel uh the

401
00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:06,000
chancellor will be the first european to

402
00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:06,800
go there

403
00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:08,639
and also there i think it's a mix of

404
00:15:08,639 --> 00:15:10,079
both of what you mentioned

405
00:15:10,079 --> 00:15:13,279
it's a recognition of her outstanding uh

406
00:15:13,279 --> 00:15:15,839
role as a leader of germany and of

407
00:15:15,839 --> 00:15:16,720
europe

408
00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:19,120
um she will leave office at the end of

409
00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:20,480
september or

410
00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:22,639
sort of once a new government is is

411
00:15:22,639 --> 00:15:23,600
formed

412
00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:25,440
so the president will receive her in the

413
00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:27,440
white house before that's a measure of

414
00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:28,480
recognition

415
00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:30,240
but there is plenty of stuff to talk

416
00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:32,240
about and and i think

417
00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:35,040
you've mentioned china indeed where she

418
00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:37,279
has

419
00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:39,920
somewhat different nuances in also in

420
00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:42,240
her public appearances after the nato

421
00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:42,959
summit and

422
00:15:42,959 --> 00:15:46,240
said you know let us let us focus

423
00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:49,680
on what makes on what the west has to

424
00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:50,240
offer

425
00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:52,560
as a positive vision and let us not

426
00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:53,279
define

427
00:15:53,279 --> 00:15:55,680
what the west is and should be simply by

428
00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:57,360
who we are against

429
00:15:57,360 --> 00:16:00,959
um and and the second thing is

430
00:16:00,959 --> 00:16:03,759
with respect to russia it is good that

431
00:16:03,759 --> 00:16:04,560
there are no

432
00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:07,120
direct conversations and negotiations

433
00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:08,720
between berlin and washington

434
00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:12,240
also uh on the issue of the gazoo duke

435
00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:12,959
as i learned

436
00:16:12,959 --> 00:16:15,600
of the pipeline that you mentioned we

437
00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:17,120
all know about

438
00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:20,320
the the different positions uh that do

439
00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:20,880
exist

440
00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:22,639
not just across the atlantic but also

441
00:16:22,639 --> 00:16:24,639
within europe on this project

442
00:16:24,639 --> 00:16:27,360
but i think both sides the u.s president

443
00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:29,040
and the german government have made it

444
00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:30,079
clear that this

445
00:16:30,079 --> 00:16:33,360
project however controversial should not

446
00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:35,440
be the one to define our relationship

447
00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:39,040
as we go forward john litzy

448
00:16:39,040 --> 00:16:42,320
uh you you're the vice president for the

449
00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:43,440
council

450
00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:46,480
on foreign relations in washington dc

451
00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:50,800
we know that china is indeed uh

452
00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:54,320
the very rare uh topic where there is a

453
00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:57,519
strong political consensus in in

454
00:16:57,519 --> 00:16:58,639
washington

455
00:16:58,639 --> 00:17:02,880
uh is the the nato uh summit declaration

456
00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:05,280
considered a victory for the biden

457
00:17:05,280 --> 00:17:06,559
administration

458
00:17:06,559 --> 00:17:09,839
even by its republican

459
00:17:09,839 --> 00:17:12,480
opponents

460
00:17:13,199 --> 00:17:14,799
well thank you very much for the

461
00:17:14,799 --> 00:17:17,119
question christine now before i answer

462
00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:18,160
it let me uh

463
00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:20,959
join with thomas and send my regrets

464
00:17:20,959 --> 00:17:23,520
that i'm not able to be in bratislava

465
00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:26,319
uh but i'm very fortunate that the

466
00:17:26,319 --> 00:17:28,160
conference organizers have invited me

467
00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:30,840
and i'm glad to join you here

468
00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:33,600
today i would say that

469
00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:35,600
the answer your question depends upon

470
00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:37,200
who you ask

471
00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:39,280
number one i do think it is true as you

472
00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:40,320
pointed out

473
00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:43,039
that when it comes to china there is

474
00:17:43,039 --> 00:17:45,360
broad and i think relatively deep

475
00:17:45,360 --> 00:17:48,480
bipartisan agreement that china is

476
00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:51,120
in essence job one or challenge number

477
00:17:51,120 --> 00:17:51,840
one

478
00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:54,400
for american foreign policy but also i

479
00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:56,240
think there's a fair amount of consensus

480
00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:58,559
across the aisle among democrats

481
00:17:58,559 --> 00:18:01,200
and republicans about the challenge

482
00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:02,320
painted by

483
00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:05,120
russia and these are two issues that

484
00:18:05,120 --> 00:18:06,799
really stand out against a lot of other

485
00:18:06,799 --> 00:18:07,600
issues

486
00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:09,760
in foreign policy that divide the two

487
00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:11,440
parties and also create

488
00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:14,160
divisions within the two parties having

489
00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:14,960
said that

490
00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:17,120
i don't think it's the case that there

491
00:18:17,120 --> 00:18:18,240
has been

492
00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:21,440
agreement on what president biden

493
00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:24,880
has accomplished in his trip so far

494
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:27,440
again politics in the united states are

495
00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:28,799
very polarized

496
00:18:28,799 --> 00:18:31,600
they increasingly infect foreign policy

497
00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:33,919
as well as domestic policy

498
00:18:33,919 --> 00:18:35,760
and there has been criticism that the

499
00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:37,039
president

500
00:18:37,039 --> 00:18:40,320
while he has gotten words from

501
00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:43,360
the european he hasn't gotten deeds and

502
00:18:43,360 --> 00:18:44,880
again i agree with john

503
00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:48,080
that what happened at nato in the recent

504
00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:49,200
discussions about

505
00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,200
settling some trade issues with the

506
00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:53,600
european union are significant

507
00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:56,799
they are a very good start but in this

508
00:18:56,799 --> 00:18:58,080
as in much in life

509
00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:01,120
it's not so much how you start but how

510
00:19:01,120 --> 00:19:01,840
you finish

511
00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:03,360
and i think the really interesting

512
00:19:03,360 --> 00:19:06,880
question in the months and years to come

513
00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:08,840
is the degree to which we're able to

514
00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:10,000
translate

515
00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:13,120
the agreements and sentiments expressed

516
00:19:13,120 --> 00:19:14,640
in the communiques

517
00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:18,160
into actual common policy and i think

518
00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:20,720
that is going to prove to be exceedingly

519
00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:22,080
difficult

520
00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:24,799
obviously there are differences within

521
00:19:24,799 --> 00:19:25,440
europe

522
00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:28,400
on these questions if you go from lisbon

523
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:31,120
to vilnius you can get a variety of

524
00:19:31,120 --> 00:19:34,320
perspectives on where china rates as a

525
00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:35,840
challenge to europe

526
00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:38,960
and also how to deal with it and there

527
00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:40,559
are also divisions between

528
00:19:40,559 --> 00:19:43,039
europe and the united states over how to

529
00:19:43,039 --> 00:19:44,080
proceed

530
00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:46,320
overshadowing this is something that

531
00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:47,679
thomas pointed out

532
00:19:47,679 --> 00:19:50,799
germany has elections in september which

533
00:19:50,799 --> 00:19:52,320
could potentially

534
00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:55,360
add a whole new dynamic here likewise

535
00:19:55,360 --> 00:19:57,039
next year we're going to have the french

536
00:19:57,039 --> 00:19:58,720
presidential elections

537
00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:01,919
so a big question for many americans is

538
00:20:01,919 --> 00:20:04,000
what kind of europe are we going to be

539
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:05,440
dealing with

540
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:07,840
a year from now and are we going to be

541
00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:09,600
able to in fact

542
00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:11,200
take our commitment to general

543
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:13,760
principles and values

544
00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:16,960
and translate them into coordinated

545
00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:17,679
policy

546
00:20:17,679 --> 00:20:18,960
and i think it's going to be a big

547
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:20,799
challenge but i would note that's what

548
00:20:20,799 --> 00:20:23,760
diplomats are for

549
00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:27,520
of course beijing has reacted

550
00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:31,520
with a great deal of

551
00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:34,799
aggressive vocabulary as usual telling

552
00:20:34,799 --> 00:20:37,200
that you know nato members are

553
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,120
hypocrites and that

554
00:20:39,120 --> 00:20:41,840
the u.s are developing a cold war

555
00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:43,039
mentality and

556
00:20:43,039 --> 00:20:45,280
indeed beijing has increased for the

557
00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:47,280
last two days the military

558
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:51,280
pressure upon taiwan uh with some 28

559
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:54,480
fighter jets i believe circling around

560
00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:56,080
the island

561
00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:59,840
do you feel john john lindsay that

562
00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:00,880
indeed

563
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:04,159
europeans should be more aware

564
00:21:04,159 --> 00:21:07,840
of the stakes in the uh

565
00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:10,960
indian ocean and in the southern

566
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:14,000
china sea even though i believe

567
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:17,520
france and the uk have

568
00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:20,559
increased their naval presence in that

569
00:21:20,559 --> 00:21:23,360
part of the world

570
00:21:24,159 --> 00:21:26,720
certainly i would think europeans should

571
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:29,039
be paying attention to these issues

572
00:21:29,039 --> 00:21:32,240
but it's not a merely a matter of the

573
00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:35,679
military threat that china poses

574
00:21:35,679 --> 00:21:38,799
to countries in east asia

575
00:21:38,799 --> 00:21:41,520
or south asia we shouldn't forget the

576
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:43,679
clashes that occurred in the himalayas

577
00:21:43,679 --> 00:21:44,720
over the last

578
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,200
year but the broader challenge that

579
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:48,559
china presents

580
00:21:48,559 --> 00:21:51,600
on the economic front but also to the

581
00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:55,120
liberal rules-based international order

582
00:21:55,120 --> 00:21:57,679
the notion that there's agreed upon

583
00:21:57,679 --> 00:21:58,159
rules

584
00:21:58,159 --> 00:22:01,200
that govern how we interact

585
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:04,000
china clearly wishes to rewrite the

586
00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:05,280
rules of the game

587
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:08,320
that poses challenges uh to the west i

588
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:09,280
think it's

589
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:10,799
pretty apparent in europe there's

590
00:22:10,799 --> 00:22:12,799
growing concern about

591
00:22:12,799 --> 00:22:15,679
chinese human rights abuses the economic

592
00:22:15,679 --> 00:22:17,039
challenge that

593
00:22:17,039 --> 00:22:20,320
china faces and i will note the reaction

594
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:23,360
in many european capitals to

595
00:22:23,360 --> 00:22:26,240
the chinese decision to sanction

596
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:28,400
european officials over

597
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:31,360
uh their support or their criticism of

598
00:22:31,360 --> 00:22:33,840
china's

599
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:35,520
treatment of the weaker so this is an

600
00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:37,039
issue that's going to go on

601
00:22:37,039 --> 00:22:39,919
now there's a broader issue about what

602
00:22:39,919 --> 00:22:42,840
kind of military

603
00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:46,559
contribution european countries can make

604
00:22:46,559 --> 00:22:49,520
to any effort to deter chinese

605
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:50,559
aggression

606
00:22:50,559 --> 00:22:52,559
and i think there is a really good

607
00:22:52,559 --> 00:22:55,280
debate to be had there i know in some

608
00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:57,840
european capitals either discount the

609
00:22:57,840 --> 00:22:59,679
nature of the chinese threat certainly

610
00:22:59,679 --> 00:23:01,600
to europe

611
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:04,240
but also to others likewise they may

612
00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:04,960
discount

613
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:08,080
what it is that european countries can

614
00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:08,640
actually

615
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:10,480
bring to that issue and i think if you

616
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:12,720
look at american foreign policy while

617
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:14,000
president biden

618
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:15,760
clearly is trying to rally the

619
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:17,120
traditional

620
00:23:17,120 --> 00:23:20,880
european allies rally nato not all the

621
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:22,640
eggs are being put in the nato or

622
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:24,320
transatlantic basket

623
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:25,520
obviously has something called the

624
00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:27,440
indo-pacific as well as

625
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,640
the uh indo-pacific or the quad

626
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:33,520
operation as well as bilateral relations

627
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:34,080
with

628
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:37,360
south korea and china i think also one

629
00:23:37,360 --> 00:23:38,480
of the things that europe is going to

630
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:40,480
have to struggle with is to what extent

631
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:42,000
thinking about china at least in

632
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:43,520
military terms

633
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,080
is going to have consequences for

634
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:47,760
europe's ability

635
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:50,640
to deter russia i think that's a big

636
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:51,600
issue obviously

637
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:54,320
much more so as you go to central uh

638
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:56,320
europe or go to

639
00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:58,320
the baltic countries it's going to be

640
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:00,240
issues are going to have to be debated

641
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:01,840
obviously one of the big questions again

642
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:03,760
on the military front is to what extent

643
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:05,919
we're going to see european countries

644
00:24:05,919 --> 00:24:08,880
uh live up to their 2014 whale summit

645
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:09,520
pledge

646
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,159
to spend two percent of their gdp on

647
00:24:12,159 --> 00:24:12,960
defense

648
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:16,000
and most notably the largest economy in

649
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,480
uh nato on that's oversized the united

650
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:19,440
states

651
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:22,400
is germany and it's well well below uh

652
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:24,000
the two percent mark and we'll see what

653
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:24,720
happens

654
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:27,760
after the german elections yes but

655
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:29,840
president biden was so nice to us

656
00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:32,799
europeans that he hardly mentioned

657
00:24:32,799 --> 00:24:36,000
the the sort of burden sharing

658
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:39,440
issue uh during the summit last monday

659
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:42,720
uh bruno mache is your former portuguese

660
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:44,559
secretary for european affairs you've

661
00:24:44,559 --> 00:24:45,039
written

662
00:24:45,039 --> 00:24:48,080
extensively upon european

663
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:51,679
asian issues uh to what extent in your

664
00:24:51,679 --> 00:24:52,880
view within

665
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:56,400
the 27 members of the eu

666
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:59,919
there is a varying degree of discomfort

667
00:24:59,919 --> 00:25:00,400
if not

668
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:03,919
disagreement with the two paragraphs

669
00:25:03,919 --> 00:25:07,120
regarding china in the final

670
00:25:07,120 --> 00:25:10,480
nato communique last monday

671
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:13,520
i don't think we should exaggerate that

672
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:15,760
there's a difference about method and

673
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:16,640
means as

674
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:20,159
jim lindsay said about how to proceed

675
00:25:20,159 --> 00:25:21,919
but we should be clear that on the

676
00:25:21,919 --> 00:25:24,480
question of how to regard the chinese

677
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:25,440
regime

678
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:27,440
or on the values question there is

679
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:29,200
really very little disagreement

680
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:31,200
if you had a two hour seminar with the

681
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:32,880
top leaders from europe and the us

682
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:34,960
they would agree on everything of course

683
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,039
in politics often the question is not

684
00:25:37,039 --> 00:25:38,000
about that

685
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,400
it's not a seminar it's about what to do

686
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:42,000
and i'll get to that but there are

687
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:44,159
some disagreements there there's also a

688
00:25:44,159 --> 00:25:45,840
difference of style

689
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:49,279
perhaps europeans don't like to have uh

690
00:25:49,279 --> 00:25:51,600
that blunt direct language in the final

691
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:53,600
statements but that's to some extent the

692
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:55,520
question of star remember that

693
00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:58,080
our political legal culture in europe

694
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:01,120
over the past 70 years is about rules

695
00:26:01,120 --> 00:26:03,360
and rules as you learn in law school are

696
00:26:03,360 --> 00:26:04,799
impartial

697
00:26:04,799 --> 00:26:08,080
and objective they don't talk about

698
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:09,760
whom they apply to they apply to

699
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:11,120
everyone so for

700
00:26:11,120 --> 00:26:13,120
for european drafting those statements

701
00:26:13,120 --> 00:26:14,720
it's enough to say that you have to

702
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:16,640
respect freedom of navigation and you

703
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:17,919
don't have to add

704
00:26:17,919 --> 00:26:20,799
against china but let's not exaggerate

705
00:26:20,799 --> 00:26:22,159
those elements which are

706
00:26:22,159 --> 00:26:23,919
actually can be productive in the

707
00:26:23,919 --> 00:26:25,679
discussions that thankfully are now

708
00:26:25,679 --> 00:26:27,279
happening instead of the issue

709
00:26:27,279 --> 00:26:29,360
but there are of course trade issues and

710
00:26:29,360 --> 00:26:30,960
in that respect your

711
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:32,960
interest starting with the german ones

712
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:34,640
are very well let me be

713
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,360
also very blunt on that uh if you look

714
00:26:37,360 --> 00:26:39,200
at the level of investment that's going

715
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:40,080
into china

716
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:43,360
over the past uh two years uh

717
00:26:43,360 --> 00:26:46,480
it's mostly american goldman sachs went

718
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:48,159
strongly into the chinese market last

719
00:26:48,159 --> 00:26:49,919
year black rock

720
00:26:49,919 --> 00:26:51,840
so i actually object to the idea that

721
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,159
it's europeans that are engaging with

722
00:26:54,159 --> 00:26:55,600
trade with china

723
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:58,640
uh everyone is the notion of the cup

724
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,080
playing that you sometimes hear from

725
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:00,880
washington

726
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:03,360
has remained at the level of rhetoric

727
00:27:03,360 --> 00:27:04,880
and i think it will remain at the level

728
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:06,400
of rhetoric we're still looking for the

729
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:08,000
exact approach but it's more about

730
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,000
strategic sectors of the economy rather

731
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:11,360
than generalized

732
00:27:11,360 --> 00:27:14,880
decoupling final point the u.s and

733
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:16,159
europe have evolved

734
00:27:16,159 --> 00:27:18,480
along parallel tracks over the past five

735
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:19,360
years

736
00:27:19,360 --> 00:27:23,120
the change happened around 2015 2016

737
00:27:23,120 --> 00:27:26,320
when both the us and europe realized

738
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:28,159
that china was not converging to a

739
00:27:28,159 --> 00:27:29,679
western model perhaps they realized a

740
00:27:29,679 --> 00:27:32,399
bit too late but they did realize

741
00:27:32,399 --> 00:27:34,640
and they realized that china had uh bold

742
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:36,240
ambitions about shaping the global

743
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:36,799
system

744
00:27:36,799 --> 00:27:38,080
but the change actually happened

745
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:40,320
simultaneously on both sides of the

746
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:41,600
atlantic and since then

747
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:44,159
there's been a an evolution that is

748
00:27:44,159 --> 00:27:45,039
quite similar

749
00:27:45,039 --> 00:27:47,039
it's europe not the us that came up with

750
00:27:47,039 --> 00:27:48,720
the idea of a systemic

751
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:51,440
rivalry values-based concept which i

752
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:53,600
noticed the u.s has now recently started

753
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:54,720
to adapt

754
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,520
in in blink and for example secretary

755
00:27:57,520 --> 00:27:59,760
blink and has adopted that language uh

756
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:02,559
quite a lot so i don't we'll get to that

757
00:28:02,559 --> 00:28:04,000
when we talk about strategic autonomy

758
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:04,640
later but

759
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:07,039
i don't see that there's really quite

760
00:28:07,039 --> 00:28:09,520
unfair to europeans to suggest that they

761
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:12,080
either less clear on the values question

762
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:13,039
or that they are

763
00:28:13,039 --> 00:28:16,399
more driven by uh the sort of the vile

764
00:28:16,399 --> 00:28:19,600
metal of trade than americans are uh

765
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:21,360
we just have different ideas about how

766
00:28:21,360 --> 00:28:22,640
to deal with this

767
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,200
huge challenge that china is and on both

768
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:26,320
sides of the atlantic there's a

769
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:27,279
consciousness

770
00:28:27,279 --> 00:28:30,240
that you cannot make mistakes uh and

771
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:31,279
this is the question that's going to

772
00:28:31,279 --> 00:28:32,240
define the la

773
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:35,360
the next half a century and so obviously

774
00:28:35,360 --> 00:28:36,799
there are differences of opinion about

775
00:28:36,799 --> 00:28:38,559
what to do and that's why i think

776
00:28:38,559 --> 00:28:40,000
strategic autonomy comes in the

777
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:41,440
europeans want to have a word

778
00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:44,240
on what to do and how to proceed when it

779
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:46,159
comes to russia would you would you say

780
00:28:46,159 --> 00:28:48,640
that there is more consensus within

781
00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:53,120
uh the 27 although of course

782
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:55,679
risk assessment is quite different there

783
00:28:55,679 --> 00:28:56,960
was an interesting

784
00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:59,200
research by the munich security

785
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:00,159
conference

786
00:29:00,159 --> 00:29:02,480
showing of course that you know from now

787
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:03,840
north to east

788
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:07,440
to south the southern part of europe uh

789
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:09,440
the risks are not the same and the

790
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:11,120
assessment is not even the same

791
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:14,000
compared to the us for us in europe the

792
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:14,799
first

793
00:29:14,799 --> 00:29:18,320
risk is climate and in the us

794
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:21,520
is china and cyber

795
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:24,559
uh russia is is a different question

796
00:29:24,559 --> 00:29:26,399
on russia you have people in europe that

797
00:29:26,399 --> 00:29:28,000
actually think this administration is

798
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:29,279
being too soft

799
00:29:29,279 --> 00:29:30,960
people who are angry about the meeting

800
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:32,320
that is happening right now

801
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:34,559
between president biden and putin and

802
00:29:34,559 --> 00:29:36,000
then there are people in europe

803
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:37,840
that actually have not only trade

804
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:40,399
connections but long-standing cultural

805
00:29:40,399 --> 00:29:43,600
intellectual links to russia uh russia

806
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:45,200
of course is part of european history

807
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:47,360
it's been part of european history for

808
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:49,200
much longer than than the united states

809
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:50,640
has been a country

810
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:53,919
so russia i think europeans do have to

811
00:29:53,919 --> 00:29:55,840
come up with a common position and it's

812
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:57,520
not going to be easy

813
00:29:57,520 --> 00:29:59,360
but but on china there is a common

814
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:01,760
position

815
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:05,039
general allen it is obvious that

816
00:30:05,039 --> 00:30:09,200
president biden is indeed reinforcing

817
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:12,799
or or restoring

818
00:30:12,799 --> 00:30:16,240
the american leadership uh in in

819
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:19,919
the western world albeit

820
00:30:19,919 --> 00:30:22,399
in a more polite and even affectionate

821
00:30:22,399 --> 00:30:23,279
manner

822
00:30:23,279 --> 00:30:26,080
than many of his predecessors but there

823
00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:27,679
have been some bruises

824
00:30:27,679 --> 00:30:30,720
about afghanistan and of course

825
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,600
for obvious reasons relating to your

826
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:35,919
brilliant military career i'm sure this

827
00:30:35,919 --> 00:30:38,399
is an issue that you feel strongly about

828
00:30:38,399 --> 00:30:41,200
european allies felt that they had not

829
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:43,760
been consulted or even warned

830
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:46,880
that the u.s would

831
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:50,799
harvest in its military

832
00:30:50,799 --> 00:30:53,840
retreat from afghanistan

833
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:57,679
retreat well it's a hard word

834
00:30:57,679 --> 00:30:59,120
it is a hard word and it's it's a

835
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:01,360
difficult moment for us

836
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:02,799
and i can understand why the europeans

837
00:31:02,799 --> 00:31:04,080
felt as though they were not properly

838
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:05,679
consulted

839
00:31:05,679 --> 00:31:07,760
many of us were caught by surprise by

840
00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:09,360
the decision

841
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:10,720
the decision has been made the troops

842
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:12,799
are coming down i think the challenge

843
00:31:12,799 --> 00:31:14,640
for us going forward

844
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:16,080
not just the united states but more

845
00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:18,880
broadly within nato and the

846
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:20,399
transatlantic relationship but more

847
00:31:20,399 --> 00:31:22,640
broadly the community of nations

848
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:24,799
is how we can continue to support the

849
00:31:24,799 --> 00:31:26,720
afghan people

850
00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:28,159
there are many people in the world that

851
00:31:28,159 --> 00:31:29,919
are willing to dismiss the 20 years that

852
00:31:29,919 --> 00:31:32,480
we spent in afghanistan as having been

853
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:36,000
uh an investment that returned nothing

854
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:37,919
uh and the truth of course is much

855
00:31:37,919 --> 00:31:39,279
different than that

856
00:31:39,279 --> 00:31:42,240
uh the quality of the life of the afghan

857
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:43,760
people by and large the

858
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:47,360
the life expectancy that child mortality

859
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:49,440
the women dying in childbirth the

860
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:51,600
education levels that have improved

861
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:53,120
there has been so much

862
00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:54,240
that has been accomplished in

863
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:55,840
afghanistan that to dismiss it out of

864
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:56,960
hand

865
00:31:56,960 --> 00:32:01,200
is patently wrong and unfair

866
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:02,799
but the challenge of course that we face

867
00:32:02,799 --> 00:32:04,399
is what will the taliban

868
00:32:04,399 --> 00:32:06,480
ultimately do because in many respects

869
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:08,240
uh the trump administration tied the

870
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:09,840
hands of the biden administration with

871
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:10,640
respect to

872
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:12,000
having to honor an agreement with the

873
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:14,480
taliban

874
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:16,000
i may be the only person in this

875
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:18,080
audience who's actually negotiated with

876
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:19,440
the taliban

877
00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:21,360
and here's what i believe and that it is

878
00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:23,360
not in the dna of the taliban to ever

879
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:24,799
honor any agreement that they

880
00:32:24,799 --> 00:32:27,519
they have with with apostates or

881
00:32:27,519 --> 00:32:29,039
infidels

882
00:32:29,039 --> 00:32:30,399
and that's who they made this agreement

883
00:32:30,399 --> 00:32:33,600
with uh well 150 000 troops couldn't

884
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:34,320
separate

885
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:37,440
the taliban from al qaeda why would we

886
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:38,640
expect that they would separate

887
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:40,000
voluntarily now

888
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:42,640
when al qaeda has been a great ally of

889
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:44,559
the taliban and it was from the safe

890
00:32:44,559 --> 00:32:45,840
haven provided

891
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:47,760
by the taliban that al qaeda was able to

892
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:49,279
attack the west

893
00:32:49,279 --> 00:32:52,720
and why would we believe that the

894
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:54,559
the taliban would give up its

895
00:32:54,559 --> 00:32:57,840
aspirations for an islamic emirate

896
00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:00,480
and why and this is the heart of my

897
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:01,600
concern

898
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:03,120
why would we ever believe that the

899
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:04,880
rights of women and

900
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:06,880
minorities in afghanistan will ever be

901
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:09,120
respected by the taliban who are already

902
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:10,000
beating women in

903
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:12,159
town squares and assassinating female

904
00:33:12,159 --> 00:33:13,120
journalists and

905
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:16,000
and killing many young afghan girls who

906
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:19,279
were on their way to school recently

907
00:33:19,279 --> 00:33:22,320
so we have we have a lot of work to do

908
00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:24,559
not just as a nation the united states

909
00:33:24,559 --> 00:33:25,440
but

910
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:28,240
work to do as a transatlantic alliance

911
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:28,799
and

912
00:33:28,799 --> 00:33:31,519
more broadly the global community of

913
00:33:31,519 --> 00:33:32,240
values

914
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:35,679
democracies to support afghan women

915
00:33:35,679 --> 00:33:38,320
to support the sanctity of the follow-on

916
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:40,080
government in afghanistan to do what we

917
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:41,120
can to strengthen the

918
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:44,960
economy and i am very cautious of those

919
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:45,919
who would say

920
00:33:45,919 --> 00:33:47,919
that the taliban with whom we have been

921
00:33:47,919 --> 00:33:50,159
dealing in doha and other places are

922
00:33:50,159 --> 00:33:53,919
some form of a re-warmed modernized

923
00:33:53,919 --> 00:33:57,039
insightful organization they are not

924
00:33:57,039 --> 00:33:58,799
it's not in them to be that way we need

925
00:33:58,799 --> 00:34:00,399
to be very careful

926
00:34:00,399 --> 00:34:02,399
about how the taliban will react after

927
00:34:02,399 --> 00:34:03,919
the departure of the united states and

928
00:34:03,919 --> 00:34:04,799
nato

929
00:34:04,799 --> 00:34:06,799
and we need to do all that we can to

930
00:34:06,799 --> 00:34:09,839
establish mechanisms to support

931
00:34:09,839 --> 00:34:13,440
our afghan allies to support the afghan

932
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:14,320
women

933
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:15,918
and ultimately to do what we can to

934
00:34:15,918 --> 00:34:17,918
provide as much stability as we possibly

935
00:34:17,918 --> 00:34:19,679
can for afghanistan in the aftermath of

936
00:34:19,679 --> 00:34:22,000
our departure

937
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:25,119
general of course we

938
00:34:25,119 --> 00:34:27,839
we know that

939
00:34:28,399 --> 00:34:30,800
president biden's administration and

940
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:31,599
many

941
00:34:31,599 --> 00:34:34,960
speeches by by tony blinken and also by

942
00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:37,359
jake sullivan the the uh national

943
00:34:37,359 --> 00:34:39,359
security adviser

944
00:34:39,359 --> 00:34:42,239
are turning upon values but there's also

945
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:44,879
a dimension of continuity with a

946
00:34:44,879 --> 00:34:47,040
previous administration certainly not in

947
00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:48,239
style but

948
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:52,800
in substance when indeed the doctrine

949
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:55,040
very much has to do with the idea that

950
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:58,079
foreign policy is another dimension

951
00:34:58,079 --> 00:35:01,200
of domestic policy and that it should

952
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:04,240
address the interests of the american

953
00:35:04,240 --> 00:35:06,079
middle class

954
00:35:06,079 --> 00:35:09,920
is that a dimension which we

955
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:13,040
in europe should be concerned about

956
00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:16,160
wary about well it is certainly going to

957
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:18,160
be prominent i think in the in the biden

958
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:19,920
administration and in its policy for the

959
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:20,800
formulation

960
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:22,320
it's it's it's process for the

961
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:24,000
formulation of policy

962
00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:26,960
but one of the one of the reasons uh

963
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:27,680
that the

964
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:29,040
we have a trump we had a trump

965
00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:31,599
administration was his capacity

966
00:35:31,599 --> 00:35:33,680
to rally the disaffection of large

967
00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:35,440
segments of the american population that

968
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:36,640
believed that

969
00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:38,720
their interests as americans had been

970
00:35:38,720 --> 00:35:41,520
mortgaged on behalf of a relationship

971
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:43,359
and foreign engagement a relationship

972
00:35:43,359 --> 00:35:45,839
overseas and foreign engagement

973
00:35:45,839 --> 00:35:47,440
that globalization hadn't worked that

974
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:48,960
the fourth industrial revolution had

975
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:50,240
left them

976
00:35:50,240 --> 00:35:53,520
uh at a disadvantage

977
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:56,160
and so i think wisely the biden

978
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:58,079
administration has in fact recognized

979
00:35:58,079 --> 00:36:00,800
that if there will be a foreign policy

980
00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:02,079
that will be effective for the united

981
00:36:02,079 --> 00:36:03,599
states there has to be a relevance of

982
00:36:03,599 --> 00:36:05,200
that foreign policy for the middle class

983
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:06,160
it can't just

984
00:36:06,160 --> 00:36:08,480
sell in washington or in new york city

985
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:09,760
or in los angeles

986
00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:12,480
it has to sell in des moines it has to

987
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:13,040
sell in

988
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:15,680
in omaha and that's a challenge it's a

989
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:16,320
challenge

990
00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:18,000
for the reasons that jim lindsey

991
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:20,000
mentioned which is that

992
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:23,520
we are terribly polarized right now in

993
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:25,280
the united states

994
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:28,320
when the president talked about america

995
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:30,960
having been played as a sucker by our

996
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:32,240
allies

997
00:36:32,240 --> 00:36:35,280
uh or when he had depicted the eu as the

998
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:37,839
number one foe of america

999
00:36:37,839 --> 00:36:39,760
and having seen all of that be so

1000
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:41,839
heavily digested by large segments of

1001
00:36:41,839 --> 00:36:43,440
the american electorate that voted for

1002
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:43,760
him

1003
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:47,920
and his ilk turning that around

1004
00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:49,599
will be a great challenge for the bide

1005
00:36:49,599 --> 00:36:51,359
administration and i'm

1006
00:36:51,359 --> 00:36:53,040
none of us could be more pleased than

1007
00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:55,599
first of all the people that he chose

1008
00:36:55,599 --> 00:36:57,520
to populate his administration because

1009
00:36:57,520 --> 00:36:59,200
they not only are

1010
00:36:59,200 --> 00:37:01,760
pretty well experienced but they also in

1011
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:02,560
many respects

1012
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:04,160
like no administration in american

1013
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:06,640
history they look like america

1014
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:07,760
the numbers of women in this

1015
00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:09,760
administration and people of color

1016
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:11,760
this is a great accomplishment from my

1017
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:13,359
perspective and it gives the

1018
00:37:13,359 --> 00:37:15,119
administration the capacity to make the

1019
00:37:15,119 --> 00:37:16,800
moral argument

1020
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:19,359
that we have to link our foreign policy

1021
00:37:19,359 --> 00:37:20,640
to the future

1022
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:22,320
of our domestic policy and to the

1023
00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:23,920
american people otherwise the

1024
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:25,680
irrelevance of the two

1025
00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:28,160
or the discontinuity of the two will

1026
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:30,480
defeat both

1027
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:34,480
dr bagger in berlin there have been

1028
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:38,560
many uh interesting research papers by

1029
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:41,119
the german martial fund or the european

1030
00:37:41,119 --> 00:37:41,760
council

1031
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:45,760
on foreign relations showing how much

1032
00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:49,119
european public opinion from north to

1033
00:37:49,119 --> 00:37:50,240
east 2000

1034
00:37:50,240 --> 00:37:53,760
has changed towards

1035
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:56,720
the us and it's particularly true in

1036
00:37:56,720 --> 00:37:59,040
germany

1037
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:02,079
i've noticed in a gmf paper

1038
00:38:02,079 --> 00:38:05,520
that 39 of germans

1039
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:09,040
only 39 consider the us to be the

1040
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:12,400
the necessary partner and the french

1041
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:16,320
43 percent yeah you know something's

1042
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:19,040
changing there how do you explain such

1043
00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:20,560
an erosion

1044
00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:24,240
of uh the the american

1045
00:38:24,240 --> 00:38:27,200
leadership in the minds of the the

1046
00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:30,000
german people

1047
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:34,400
well i i think uh uh maybe two things i

1048
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:37,280
i think the first is what i try to

1049
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:39,280
say at the beginning is the the great

1050
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:40,480
sense of relief

1051
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:43,200
uh all across germany with this

1052
00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:44,560
administration

1053
00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:46,800
and and it resembles really an

1054
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:48,000
experience i had

1055
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:50,800
after being posted in at our embassy in

1056
00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:51,440
washington

1057
00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:53,839
in the early 2000s and then coming back

1058
00:38:53,839 --> 00:38:55,760
to berlin and witnessing

1059
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:57,920
barack obama when he was still candidate

1060
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:00,320
in the summer of 2008

1061
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:03,520
here in in berlin

1062
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:05,680
and the mood was we would love to love

1063
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:06,720
america again

1064
00:39:06,720 --> 00:39:08,880
so there's a great reservoir of sympathy

1065
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:10,800
that that biden is

1066
00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:13,280
tapping into and that he can tap into

1067
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:14,880
and that he can mobilize

1068
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:16,560
but we should not underestimate that

1069
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:18,880
there is also a lingering doubt that

1070
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:19,599
will not

1071
00:39:19,599 --> 00:39:22,160
uh go away quickly you can you can

1072
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:22,640
correct

1073
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:26,400
policies but this this nagging sense

1074
00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:28,640
that something like the trump

1075
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:30,160
administration can happen

1076
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:34,480
in america um will not go away easily

1077
00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:36,880
if it can happen once why can it never

1078
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:38,640
happen again

1079
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:41,280
so it's it's not is the doubt is not as

1080
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:42,560
easily repaired

1081
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:45,839
or or made to disappear and so i think

1082
00:39:45,839 --> 00:39:46,640
among

1083
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:48,720
the great challenges that we have and

1084
00:39:48,720 --> 00:39:51,200
the common tasks across the atlantic

1085
00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:54,000
is not just um you know the rise of

1086
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:55,760
china

1087
00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:59,200
the the the risks emanating from russia

1088
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:00,720
it's not just trade and technology

1089
00:40:00,720 --> 00:40:03,280
cooperation or combating climate change

1090
00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:06,800
but there's a huge uh task ahead of us

1091
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:09,680
that is really a joint challenge which

1092
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:11,520
is to come to terms with the future of

1093
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:12,960
our democracies and

1094
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:15,680
to twist that a little what does the

1095
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:17,359
democracy of the future

1096
00:40:17,359 --> 00:40:19,359
actually look like with a political

1097
00:40:19,359 --> 00:40:20,560
discourse

1098
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:24,079
um that is undergoing structural change

1099
00:40:24,079 --> 00:40:26,560
through um the change of the media the

1100
00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:28,319
emergence of social media

1101
00:40:28,319 --> 00:40:30,400
and and other things the all of these

1102
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:31,520
questions are

1103
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:33,760
are on the table we've seen them we've

1104
00:40:33,760 --> 00:40:35,280
seen the results not just in the

1105
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:36,960
polarization of the us

1106
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:38,720
we've seen it also in many european

1107
00:40:38,720 --> 00:40:40,800
political systems and societies no one

1108
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:42,480
is immune from these

1109
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:45,920
uh changes and and and partly erosions

1110
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:48,640
of our democratic of the workings of our

1111
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:50,079
democratic systems

1112
00:40:50,079 --> 00:40:53,040
but i think the um you know it is a

1113
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:53,839
difference

1114
00:40:53,839 --> 00:40:56,960
uh whether you have uh someone

1115
00:40:56,960 --> 00:41:00,319
um the like of trump elected in

1116
00:41:00,319 --> 00:41:02,800
in a european state or whether is

1117
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:03,440
whether he

1118
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:05,599
he is the president of the united states

1119
00:41:05,599 --> 00:41:07,440
because that has a global impact that

1120
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:08,240
does not leave

1121
00:41:08,240 --> 00:41:11,280
europe untouched and and germany as i

1122
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:12,800
said earlier found itself in the

1123
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:14,480
crosshairs of the previous

1124
00:41:14,480 --> 00:41:17,040
president so the sense of relief may be

1125
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:19,440
higher here than elsewhere

1126
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:21,440
but i think the level of doubt that you

1127
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:23,760
point to also from the pew polls

1128
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:26,079
i think that's very real and and if at

1129
00:41:26,079 --> 00:41:28,640
all it will recede over time but not

1130
00:41:28,640 --> 00:41:32,079
not quickly not overnight but no more

1131
00:41:32,079 --> 00:41:32,839
chase

1132
00:41:32,839 --> 00:41:35,680
uh there is a

1133
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:39,359
talk within uh european leaders

1134
00:41:39,359 --> 00:41:42,960
about the necessity for the eu

1135
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:45,920
proper to increase its defense

1136
00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:48,800
capacities

1137
00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:51,119
prefers to talk about european

1138
00:41:51,119 --> 00:41:52,560
sovereignty

1139
00:41:52,560 --> 00:41:55,599
emmanuel macron talks about strategic

1140
00:41:55,599 --> 00:41:58,880
autonomy uh the dutch prime minister

1141
00:41:58,880 --> 00:41:59,760
mark rutter

1142
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:02,480
is not at all in agreement with with

1143
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:03,200
that very

1144
00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:06,880
concept would you say that

1145
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:10,400
this is an issue which we europeans

1146
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:13,839
have to come to terms with to have

1147
00:42:13,839 --> 00:42:17,839
a stronger military capacities

1148
00:42:17,839 --> 00:42:21,440
within the nato framework is that

1149
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:24,800
in your view one of the major

1150
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:27,440
issues that we have to tackle in the

1151
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:29,599
month or the years to come

1152
00:42:29,599 --> 00:42:31,520
yes there's there's some divisions in

1153
00:42:31,520 --> 00:42:32,640
europe on this uh

1154
00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:34,720
obviously i'm i'm with those who think

1155
00:42:34,720 --> 00:42:36,319
that europe needs to develop those

1156
00:42:36,319 --> 00:42:37,280
capacities

1157
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:39,280
again as i said before this is not a

1158
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:40,560
question of uh

1159
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:43,440
going in in different directions uh or

1160
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:44,560
having a different

1161
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:46,880
perception of the world or having a

1162
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:48,800
different value perception of the world

1163
00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:50,640
it's about having capacities

1164
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:52,480
to make decisions and then we can make

1165
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:54,400
decisions together

1166
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:56,240
i think we're probably moving towards

1167
00:42:56,240 --> 00:42:57,599
the framework at least

1168
00:42:57,599 --> 00:43:00,319
the way europeans see it where the

1169
00:43:00,319 --> 00:43:01,839
transatlantic alliance

1170
00:43:01,839 --> 00:43:03,520
perhaps becomes something more similar

1171
00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:05,440
to the anton cordia

1172
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:07,920
between france and and britain from it

1173
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:08,800
didn't end

1174
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:12,480
very well well no especially these days

1175
00:43:12,480 --> 00:43:14,480
it didn't end very well but it could

1176
00:43:14,480 --> 00:43:16,880
have ended worse if it wasn't for

1177
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:18,960
for the the work that had been done in

1178
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:20,960
bringing france and britain together

1179
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:23,119
but what was distinctive about it there

1180
00:43:23,119 --> 00:43:24,960
was a lot of uh

1181
00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:27,040
shared uh perceptions of the world but

1182
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:29,599
there were capacities on both sides

1183
00:43:29,599 --> 00:43:31,599
and europeans dream about having these

1184
00:43:31,599 --> 00:43:32,640
capacities and

1185
00:43:32,640 --> 00:43:34,400
that dream is not going to die i am told

1186
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:36,560
by the way that yesterday

1187
00:43:36,560 --> 00:43:39,200
in the summit uh that both fond du lai

1188
00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:39,599
and

1189
00:43:39,599 --> 00:43:41,760
and sean michelle tried to explain what

1190
00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:43,680
strategic autonomy is to

1191
00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:45,839
would they agree together about what it

1192
00:43:45,839 --> 00:43:46,880
means because they

1193
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:49,839
they don't always agree on many issues

1194
00:43:49,839 --> 00:43:50,800
that's right

1195
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:53,119
that i don't know but uh but i hope so

1196
00:43:53,119 --> 00:43:54,079
but but uh

1197
00:43:54,079 --> 00:43:55,760
but i don't think on the other side

1198
00:43:55,760 --> 00:43:57,760
there was an immediate understanding

1199
00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:00,560
of what the issue is uh the issue is the

1200
00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:01,520
way i see it

1201
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:03,599
about being able to make decisions

1202
00:44:03,599 --> 00:44:05,680
there's skepticism in europe

1203
00:44:05,680 --> 00:44:07,119
we have to be honest about this there's

1204
00:44:07,119 --> 00:44:09,599
skepticism in europe about the us's

1205
00:44:09,599 --> 00:44:11,520
effectiveness

1206
00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:13,839
i think we're actually more solid about

1207
00:44:13,839 --> 00:44:15,920
the health of american democracy than

1208
00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:17,440
about the effectiveness of american

1209
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:18,480
foreign policy

1210
00:44:18,480 --> 00:44:22,079
remember iraq um in europe that still

1211
00:44:22,079 --> 00:44:22,960
remembered

1212
00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:25,280
and so we want to be part of the debate

1213
00:44:25,280 --> 00:44:27,280
of how to deal with russia how to deal

1214
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:28,480
with china but

1215
00:44:28,480 --> 00:44:30,560
have capacities that allow us to be a

1216
00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:33,200
voice that is respected and listened

1217
00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:35,520
by washington and i'm part of those

1218
00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:37,760
europeans who keep insisting that

1219
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:40,880
washington should be happy about this

1220
00:44:40,880 --> 00:44:43,119
because after all the world is becoming

1221
00:44:43,119 --> 00:44:45,359
more dangerous and if the europeans have

1222
00:44:45,359 --> 00:44:48,640
corresponding capacities it will be

1223
00:44:48,640 --> 00:44:50,000
much easier to deal with with the

1224
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:51,680
challenges that we have

1225
00:44:51,680 --> 00:44:56,000
john lindsay should the us be happy

1226
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:59,520
about us europeans wanting to be more

1227
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:01,920
assertive in terms of defense or is

1228
00:45:01,920 --> 00:45:02,720
there

1229
00:45:02,720 --> 00:45:05,599
a high degree of skepticism about

1230
00:45:05,599 --> 00:45:06,880
european

1231
00:45:06,880 --> 00:45:10,400
effect effectiveness

1232
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:13,680
christine i suspect uh if you ask

1233
00:45:13,680 --> 00:45:16,800
most americans the answer is going to

1234
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:19,920
tend toward the skepticism

1235
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:22,960
side of the continuum a great deal of

1236
00:45:22,960 --> 00:45:23,680
concern

1237
00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:26,720
that in europe there will be talk

1238
00:45:26,720 --> 00:45:30,319
about gaining capacity but relatively

1239
00:45:30,319 --> 00:45:31,839
little

1240
00:45:31,839 --> 00:45:33,359
and i think a lot of that will be

1241
00:45:33,359 --> 00:45:35,920
measured again going back to the

1242
00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:39,760
standard set by the 2014 whale summit of

1243
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:42,800
a two percent uh of the

1244
00:45:42,800 --> 00:45:45,920
gdp going toward defense and while it is

1245
00:45:45,920 --> 00:45:46,880
true that

1246
00:45:46,880 --> 00:45:49,680
as you remark before christine president

1247
00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:50,640
biden

1248
00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:53,440
at nato didn't bang the table and the

1249
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:55,119
same way his predecessor did

1250
00:45:55,119 --> 00:45:58,240
over the defense commitment

1251
00:45:58,240 --> 00:46:00,079
this is still going to be an issue in

1252
00:46:00,079 --> 00:46:01,599
american politics

1253
00:46:01,599 --> 00:46:03,680
it would not surprise me to see it come

1254
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:04,720
up again

1255
00:46:04,720 --> 00:46:06,720
uh if we do not see significant

1256
00:46:06,720 --> 00:46:07,920
improvement

1257
00:46:07,920 --> 00:46:10,240
in uh european defense but i want to be

1258
00:46:10,240 --> 00:46:13,200
clear some european countries have

1259
00:46:13,200 --> 00:46:15,280
met the met or exceeded the two percent

1260
00:46:15,280 --> 00:46:17,359
threshold others are on the path to it

1261
00:46:17,359 --> 00:46:19,760
but obviously i think at this point a

1262
00:46:19,760 --> 00:46:21,920
majority of the nato members

1263
00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:24,000
haven't so this is going to be an issue

1264
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:25,520
but i do want to go back you know in

1265
00:46:25,520 --> 00:46:27,599
this context to sort of a broader issue

1266
00:46:27,599 --> 00:46:28,880
that you put in the table

1267
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:31,680
when you ask john about foreign policy

1268
00:46:31,680 --> 00:46:34,079
for the middle class and points that

1269
00:46:34,079 --> 00:46:37,440
thomas and bruno made and that is i

1270
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:37,760
think

1271
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:39,839
president biden fundamentally

1272
00:46:39,839 --> 00:46:41,280
understands

1273
00:46:41,280 --> 00:46:43,920
that he has a big challenge as president

1274
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:45,359
of the united states

1275
00:46:45,359 --> 00:46:47,520
and that his foreign policy in some

1276
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:49,920
sense has to begin at home

1277
00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:52,000
that's why he came into office his focus

1278
00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:54,400
has really been on the domestic economy

1279
00:46:54,400 --> 00:46:56,960
it has been on particularly getting the

1280
00:46:56,960 --> 00:46:58,319
pandemic

1281
00:46:58,319 --> 00:47:00,480
under control and getting the american

1282
00:47:00,480 --> 00:47:01,680
economy going

1283
00:47:01,680 --> 00:47:04,880
and that's really for three reasons

1284
00:47:04,880 --> 00:47:07,839
and they play into foreign policy one

1285
00:47:07,839 --> 00:47:10,640
isn't necessity to show

1286
00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:13,200
that america still works and it has

1287
00:47:13,200 --> 00:47:14,319
capacity

1288
00:47:14,319 --> 00:47:17,200
and i think if you look at many european

1289
00:47:17,200 --> 00:47:18,240
countries look at

1290
00:47:18,240 --> 00:47:21,440
public opinion polls across europe and

1291
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:22,319
elsewhere

1292
00:47:22,319 --> 00:47:24,880
there's a fair degree of skepticism

1293
00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:26,079
about the health

1294
00:47:26,079 --> 00:47:28,240
and the future of the united states in

1295
00:47:28,240 --> 00:47:30,480
terms of the power it brings to the

1296
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:30,880
world

1297
00:47:30,880 --> 00:47:33,200
table that in some ways the united

1298
00:47:33,200 --> 00:47:35,359
states is a declining power

1299
00:47:35,359 --> 00:47:38,480
contrast to china as a rising power

1300
00:47:38,480 --> 00:47:40,160
and i think part of what the biden team

1301
00:47:40,160 --> 00:47:42,240
wants to do is to counteract that

1302
00:47:42,240 --> 00:47:44,160
i think a real second thing is bruno

1303
00:47:44,160 --> 00:47:45,359
alluded to this

1304
00:47:45,359 --> 00:47:46,960
is that the united states has really

1305
00:47:46,960 --> 00:47:48,559
ruined its reputation

1306
00:47:48,559 --> 00:47:51,040
for competence if you go back over the

1307
00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:51,599
last

1308
00:47:51,599 --> 00:47:54,800
two decades bruno mentioned the iraq war

1309
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:56,559
you can mention abu ghraib

1310
00:47:56,559 --> 00:47:59,280
we can talk about the great recession

1311
00:47:59,280 --> 00:47:59,839
where

1312
00:47:59,839 --> 00:48:02,559
a subprime mortgage crisis in the united

1313
00:48:02,559 --> 00:48:04,400
states nearly brought down the global

1314
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:05,359
economy

1315
00:48:05,359 --> 00:48:08,559
we get to the mishandling of the

1316
00:48:08,559 --> 00:48:09,760
pandemic

1317
00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:12,000
and then january 6 i think a lot of

1318
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:13,040
questions

1319
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:16,000
raised about the actual competence of

1320
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:17,119
the united states

1321
00:48:17,119 --> 00:48:19,680
whatever capacity it has does it have

1322
00:48:19,680 --> 00:48:20,800
the ability

1323
00:48:20,800 --> 00:48:23,440
to produce effective policies not

1324
00:48:23,440 --> 00:48:25,680
policies that necessarily sound good

1325
00:48:25,680 --> 00:48:28,480
but actually accomplish what they set

1326
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:29,440
out to do

1327
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:31,440
and the third challenge is one bruno

1328
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:34,079
alluded to is the issue of consistency

1329
00:48:34,079 --> 00:48:37,119
that is can joe biden reassure

1330
00:48:37,119 --> 00:48:40,400
people that he can make his policies

1331
00:48:40,400 --> 00:48:41,119
stick

1332
00:48:41,119 --> 00:48:42,960
now i think in the first two c's of

1333
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:45,040
capability and competence

1334
00:48:45,040 --> 00:48:48,240
president biden may be able to make

1335
00:48:48,240 --> 00:48:49,839
significant progress

1336
00:48:49,839 --> 00:48:52,160
i think on this issue of consistency

1337
00:48:52,160 --> 00:48:54,160
it's going to be a harder sell

1338
00:48:54,160 --> 00:48:55,760
and be very interesting to see what the

1339
00:48:55,760 --> 00:48:57,520
us elections look like

1340
00:48:57,520 --> 00:48:59,040
next fall we're going to have midterm

1341
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:01,119
elections and then obviously

1342
00:49:01,119 --> 00:49:03,520
who americans chooses their president

1343
00:49:03,520 --> 00:49:05,119
come 2024.

1344
00:49:05,119 --> 00:49:07,760
so i think we need to look at this issue

1345
00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:09,440
of the future of the transatlantic

1346
00:49:09,440 --> 00:49:10,400
relationship

1347
00:49:10,400 --> 00:49:12,640
not in the context of what happened this

1348
00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:13,440
week

1349
00:49:13,440 --> 00:49:15,839
or next week but over the next several

1350
00:49:15,839 --> 00:49:17,200
years i still think

1351
00:49:17,200 --> 00:49:19,520
a lot of issues are in play and we could

1352
00:49:19,520 --> 00:49:21,520
end up with a lot of different futures

1353
00:49:21,520 --> 00:49:25,680
a decade or so out general alan we have

1354
00:49:25,680 --> 00:49:27,280
a few minutes left

1355
00:49:27,280 --> 00:49:30,400
to talk about today or to be precise

1356
00:49:30,400 --> 00:49:32,079
this very afternoon

1357
00:49:32,079 --> 00:49:34,960
as indeed uh president biden is meeting

1358
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:36,720
with president putin

1359
00:49:36,720 --> 00:49:41,440
in vila lagrange on overlooking the

1360
00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:44,880
lake of geneva

1361
00:49:44,880 --> 00:49:47,520
do you believe that in a way we are

1362
00:49:47,520 --> 00:49:48,720
getting back to the

1363
00:49:48,720 --> 00:49:52,000
soviet era where indeed the u.s

1364
00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:55,680
and russia can discuss

1365
00:49:55,680 --> 00:49:59,040
engage constructive discussion

1366
00:49:59,040 --> 00:50:02,240
on some areas on some topics and of

1367
00:50:02,240 --> 00:50:03,599
course continue

1368
00:50:03,599 --> 00:50:06,480
to have strong disagreements about about

1369
00:50:06,480 --> 00:50:07,520
values

1370
00:50:07,520 --> 00:50:10,960
and about you know foreign policy at

1371
00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:12,160
large

1372
00:50:12,160 --> 00:50:14,480
yeah i don't know whether the brief

1373
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:15,359
answer

1374
00:50:15,359 --> 00:50:16,960
yes i don't know whether it would be the

1375
00:50:16,960 --> 00:50:19,760
soviet era as an analogy

1376
00:50:19,760 --> 00:50:22,960
but wise statesmanship would have you

1377
00:50:22,960 --> 00:50:24,480
believe that we have to be able to talk

1378
00:50:24,480 --> 00:50:26,960
to our opponents and russia is clearly

1379
00:50:26,960 --> 00:50:29,280
an opponent and it is a threat now

1380
00:50:29,280 --> 00:50:30,559
and we should be able to talk to the

1381
00:50:30,559 --> 00:50:32,800
russians and we should have as many

1382
00:50:32,800 --> 00:50:34,400
people said we should have a predictable

1383
00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:35,599
relationship with the russians and a

1384
00:50:35,599 --> 00:50:37,119
consistent

1385
00:50:37,119 --> 00:50:38,960
uh relationship with the russians and it

1386
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:40,480
should be about uh

1387
00:50:40,480 --> 00:50:43,200
human rights it should be about russian

1388
00:50:43,200 --> 00:50:44,640
interference in our and other

1389
00:50:44,640 --> 00:50:46,000
democracies

1390
00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:47,280
it should be about areas where we may

1391
00:50:47,280 --> 00:50:49,520
have common interests arms control is a

1392
00:50:49,520 --> 00:50:50,240
very important

1393
00:50:50,240 --> 00:50:51,920
common interest that both our countries

1394
00:50:51,920 --> 00:50:53,839
share and then it should be about things

1395
00:50:53,839 --> 00:50:54,480
that

1396
00:50:54,480 --> 00:50:57,040
we believe we cannot tolerate out of

1397
00:50:57,040 --> 00:50:58,000
russia

1398
00:50:58,000 --> 00:51:00,480
uh and today is not the end today should

1399
00:51:00,480 --> 00:51:01,920
be the beginning

1400
00:51:01,920 --> 00:51:03,680
and if we agree that this should be a

1401
00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:05,520
beginning and that we should always talk

1402
00:51:05,520 --> 00:51:07,280
to our opponents

1403
00:51:07,280 --> 00:51:08,880
then i think that this was the right

1404
00:51:08,880 --> 00:51:10,480
meeting to have at the right moment

1405
00:51:10,480 --> 00:51:12,160
early in this administration and in the

1406
00:51:12,160 --> 00:51:14,480
aftermath of the g7 the nato summit and

1407
00:51:14,480 --> 00:51:16,240
the eu conversation

1408
00:51:16,240 --> 00:51:18,880
so a new a new beginning but it is the

1409
00:51:18,880 --> 00:51:19,359
end

1410
00:51:19,359 --> 00:51:22,640
unfortunately for our session

1411
00:51:22,640 --> 00:51:26,000
you will have refreshments downstairs

1412
00:51:26,000 --> 00:51:30,480
and the next session will start at 17

1413
00:51:30,480 --> 00:51:34,079
40 sharp the theme

1414
00:51:34,079 --> 00:51:37,440
very much alongside many of

1415
00:51:37,440 --> 00:51:40,079
the arguments our guests have developed

1416
00:51:40,079 --> 00:51:41,280
how to restore

1417
00:51:41,280 --> 00:51:44,640
trust in politics thank you very much

1418
00:51:44,640 --> 00:51:47,680
general allen mr matrous and of course

1419
00:51:47,680 --> 00:51:48,720
our friends

1420
00:51:48,720 --> 00:52:05,839
in berlin and in washington dc